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We consider the problem of inferring a latent function in a probabilistic model of data. When dependencies of the latent function are specified by a Gaussian process and the data likelihood is complex, efficient computation often involve…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-23 Martin Tegner , Benjamin Bloem-Reddy , Stephen Roberts

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-02-05 K. Triantafyllopoulos

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-01-01 Michael U. Gutmann , Jukka Corander

Stochastic processes are a flexible and widely used family of models for statistical modeling. While stochastic processes offer attractive properties such as inclusion of uncertainty properties, their inference is typically intractable,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Teemu Härkönen , Simo Särkkä

We discuss Bayesian analysis of multivariate time series with dynamic factor models that exploit time-adaptive sparsity in model parametrizations via the latent threshold approach. One central focus is on the transfer responses of multiple…

Applications · Statistics 2022-06-07 Jouchi Nakajima , Mike West

Using Kalman techniques, it is possible to perform optimal estimation in linear Gaussian state-space models. We address here the case where the noise probability density functions are of unknown functional form. A flexible Bayesian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-13 François Caron , Manuel Davy , Arnaud Doucet , Emmanuel Duflos , Philippe Vanheeghe

Suppose that a compound Poisson process is observed discretely in time and assume that its jump distribution is supported on the set of natural numbers. In this paper we propose a non-parametric Bayesian approach to estimate the intensity…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-21 Shota Gugushvili , Ester Mariucci , Frank van der Meulen

In this paper, we develop a parameter estimation method for factorially parametrized models such as Factorial Gaussian Mixture Model and Factorial Hidden Markov Model. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we show that the emission matrix…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-08-20 Y. Cem Subakan , Johannes Traa , Paris Smaragdis , Noah Stein

Gaussian process-based latent variable models are flexible and theoretically grounded tools for nonlinear dimension reduction, but generalizing to non-Gaussian data likelihoods within this nonlinear framework is statistically challenging.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-22 Gregory W. Gundersen , Michael Minyi Zhang , Barbara E. Engelhardt

In this paper, we present a method for factor analysis of discrete data. This is accomplished by fitting a dependent Poisson model with a factor structure. To be able to analyze ordinal data, we also consider a truncated Poisson…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-13 Rolf Larsson

We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multidimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit regression with time-varying parameters and apply it to multilayer temporal networks.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-05 Monica Billio , Roberto Casarin , Matteo Iacopini

The purpose of this work is to describe a unified, and indeed simple, mechanism for non-parametric Bayesian analysis, construction and generative sampling of a large class of latent feature models which one can describe as generalized…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-23 Lancelot F. James

This paper describes a compound Poisson-based random effects structure for modeling zero-inflated data. Data with large proportion of zeros are found in many fields of applied statistics, for example in ecology when trying to model and…

Applications · Statistics 2009-07-29 Marie-Pierre Etienne , Eric Parent , Benoit Hugues , Bernier Jacques

We develop correlated random measures, random measures where the atom weights can exhibit a flexible pattern of dependence, and use them to develop powerful hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. Hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-10 Rajesh Ranganath , David Blei

We develop nonparametric Bayesian modelling approaches for Poisson processes, using weighted combinations of structured beta densities to represent the point process intensity function. For a regular spatial domain, such as the unit square,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-10 Chunyi Zhao , Athanasios Kottas

In the analysis of observational data in social sciences and businesses, it is difficult to obtain a "(quasi) single-source dataset" in which the variables of interest are simultaneously observed. Instead, multiple-source datasets are…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-02 Masaki Mitsuhiro , Takahiro Hoshino

The electromagnetic nucleon form-factors data are studied with artificial feed forward neural networks. As a result the unbiased model-independent form-factor parametrizations are evaluated together with uncertainties. The Bayesian approach…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2014-11-21 Krzysztof M. Graczyk , Piotr Plonski , Robert Sulej

In this study, we develop a latent factor model for analysing high-dimensional binary data. Specifically, a standard probit model is used to describe the regression relationship between the observed binary data and the continuous latent…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-15 Jiaxin Shi , Yuan Gao , Rui Pan , Hansheng Wang

We consider the problem of sequential estimation of the unknowns of state-space and deep state-space models that include estimation of functions and latent processes of the models. The proposed approach relies on Gaussian and deep Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Yuhao Liu , Marzieh Ajirak , Petar Djuric

We analyze the dynamics of an algorithm for approximate inference with large Gaussian latent variable models in a student-teacher scenario. To model nontrivial dependencies between the latent variables, we assume random covariance matrices…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-26 Burak Çakmak , Manfred Opper