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We consider stationary stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems by evaluating a given observable along the orbits of the system. We focus on the extremal behaviour of the process, which is related to the entrance in certain…

The object of this paper is twofold. From one side we study the dichotomy, in terms of the Extremal Index of the possible Extreme Value Laws, when the rare events are centred around periodic or non periodic points. Then we build a general…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Hale Aytaç , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Sandro Vaienti

We study analytically and numerically the extreme value distribution of observables defined along the temporal evolution of a dynamical system. The convergence to the Gumbel law of observable recurrences gives information on the fractal…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-12-02 Théophile Caby , Davide Faranda , Sandro Vaienti , Pascal Yiou

Extreme value theory for chaotic dynamical systems is a rapidly expanding area of research. Given a system and a real function (observable) defined on its phase space, extreme value theory studies the limit probabilistic laws obeyed by…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-05-28 Mark P. Holland , Renato Vitolo , Pau Rabassa , Alef E. Sterk , Henk W. Broer

We investigate extreme value theory for physical systems with a global conservation law which describe renewal processes, mass transport models and long-range interacting spin models. As shown previously, a special feature is that the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-11-04 Marc Höll , Wanli Wang , Eli Barkai

We extend the scope of the dynamical theory of extreme values to cover phenomena that do not happen instantaneously, but evolve over a finite, albeit unknown at the onset, time interval. We consider complex dynamical systems, composed of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-20 Theophile Caby , Giorgio Mantica

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Jean-Francois Muzy , Emmanuel Bacry , Alexey Kozhemyak

We study the statistics of the maximum and minimum of a set of $N$ random variables whose dynamical and statistical properties fall within the scope of infinite ergodic theory. These non-stationary yet recurrent systems are described, in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-09 Talia Baravi , Eli Barkai

We apply the Principle of Maximum Entropy to the study of a general class of deterministic fractal sets. The scaling laws peculiar to these objects are accounted for by means of a constraint concerning the average content of information in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-25 R. Pastor-Satorras , J. Wagensberg

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Meagan Carney , Mark Holland , Matthew Nicol , Phuong Tran

We give conditions to prove the existence of an Extremal Index for general stationary stochastic processes by detecting the presence of one or more underlying periodic phenomena. This theory, besides giving general useful tools to identify…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-20 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

This book provides a comprehensive introduction for the study of extreme events in the context of dynamical systems. The introduction provides a broad overview of the interdisciplinary research area of extreme events, underlining its…

We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Davide Faranda , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Valerio Lucarini , Giorgio Turchetti , Sandro Vaienti

We develop and generalize the theory of extreme value for non-stationary stochastic processes, mostly by weakening the uniform mixing condition that was previously used in this setting. We apply our results to non-autonomous dynamical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-06-27 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Sandro Vaienti

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-16 Lorenzo Dell'Oro , Carlo Gaetan

The purpose of this paper is to study the fractal phenomena in large data sets and the associated questions of dimension reduction. We examine situations where the classical Principal Component Analysis is not effective in identifying the…

We study the existence of limiting laws of rare events corresponding to the entrance of the orbits on certain target sets in the phase space. The limiting laws are obtained when the target sets shrink to a Cantor set of zero Lebesgue…

We survey recent developments in fractal analysis of regular and slow-fast dynamical systems using Minkowski dimension. Our focus is on spiral trajectories near monodromic limit periodic sets in regular systems and entry-exit sequences in…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-08-28 Renato Huzak , Goran Radunović , Vesna Županović

A special normalization is proposed for strongly intensive quantities used in the study of event-by-event fluctuations in high energy collisions. It ensures that these measures are dimensionless and yields a common scale required for a…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2013-08-28 M. Gazdzicki , M. I. Gorenstein , M. Mackowiak-Pawlowska
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