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Suppose X is a multivariate diffusion process that is observed discretely in time. At each observation time, a transformation of the state of the process is observed with noise. The smoothing problem consists of recovering the path of the…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-04 Marcin Mider , Moritz Schauer , Frank van der Meulen

This paper studies time-inhomogeneous nonequilibrium diffusion processes, including both Brownian dynamics and Langevin dynamics. We derive upper bounds of the relative entropy production of the time-inhomogeneous process with respect to…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-20 Wei Zhang

Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Jan van Waaij

We revisit the work of Mitter and Newton on an information-theoretic interpretation of Bayes' formula through the Gibbs variational principle. This formulation allowed them to pose nonlinear estimation for diffusion processes as a problem…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-05-02 Maxim Raginsky

We consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval. As a prior on the diffusion coefficient, we employ a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-22 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

Bayesian methods of sampling from a posterior distribution are becoming increasingly popular due to their ability to precisely display the uncertainty of a model fit. Classical methods based on iterative random sampling and posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-04 Jacopo Guidolin , Vyacheslav Kungurtsev , Ondřej Kuželka

A key task in Bayesian statistics is sampling from distributions that are only specified up to a partition function (i.e., constant of proportionality). However, without any assumptions, sampling (even approximately) can be #P-hard, and few…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-03 Rong Ge , Holden Lee , Andrej Risteski

We study the Bayesian inverse problem for inferring the log-normal slowness function of the eikonal equation given noisy observation data on its solution at a set of spatial points. We study approximation of the posterior probability…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-04 Zhan Fei Yeo , Viet Ha Hoang

Continuous time random walks and Langevin equations are two classes of stochastic models for describing the dynamics of particles in the natural world. While some of the processes can be conveniently characterized by both of them, more…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-01-28 Xudong Wang , Yao Chen , Weihua Deng

Ordinary differential equations obtained as limits of Markov processes appear in many settings. They may arise by scaling large systems, or by averaging rapidly fluctuating systems, or in systems involving multiple time-scales, by a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-24 Hye-Won Kang , Thomas G. Kurtz , Lea Popovic

Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-30 Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer

We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-26 Tobias Sutter , Arnab Ganguly , Heinz Koeppl

Probabilistic model checking for systems with large or unbounded state space is a challenging computational problem in formal modelling and its applications. Numerical algorithms require an explicit representation of the state space, while…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Dimitrios Milios , Guido Sanguinetti , David Schnoerr

We study the inverse problem of recovering the order and the diffusion coefficient of an elliptic fractional partial differential equation from a finite number of noisy observations of the solution. We work in a Bayesian framework and show…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2017-06-28 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

We study the problem of sampling from a distribution $\target$ using the Langevin Monte Carlo algorithm and provide rate of convergences for this algorithm in terms of Wasserstein distance of order $2$. Our result holds as long as the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-07-04 Thomas Bonis

In a recent article, Krapivsky and Redner (J. Stat. Mech. 093208 (2018)) established that the distribution of the first hitting times for a diffusing particle subject to hitting an absorber is independent of the direction of the external…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-01-29 Coline Larmier , Alain Mazzolo , Andrea Zoia

In this work, we address the problem of solving a series of underdetermined linear inverse problems subject to a sparsity constraint. We generalize the spike-and-slab prior distribution to encode a priori correlation of the support of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-19 Michael Riis Andersen , Aki Vehtari , Ole Winther , Lars Kai Hansen

There is a growing literature adopting a stochastic optimal control (SOC) perspective to fine-tune diffusion models and related generative policies. A prominent class of methods, known as iterative diffusion optimization, solves the SOC…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-24 Yuhang Mei , Amirhossein Taghvaei

We consider the problem of computing first-passage time distributions for reaction processes modelled by master equations. We show that this generally intractable class of problems is equivalent to a sequential Bayesian inference problem…

Computational Physics · Physics 2017-11-29 David Schnoerr , Botond Cseke , Ramon Grima , Guido Sanguinetti

We describe a measurement device principle based on discrete iterations of Bayesian updating of system state probability distributions. Although purely classical by nature, these measurements are accompanied with a progressive collapse of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-06-11 Michel Bauer , Denis Bernard , Tristan Benoist