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We propose a scalable inference algorithm for Bayes posteriors defined on a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Given a likelihood function and a Gaussian random element representing the prior, the corresponding Bayes posterior measure…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-26 Veit Wild , James Wu , Dino Sejdinovic , Jeremias Knoblauch

Many studies on biological and soft matter systems report the joint presence of a linear mean-squared displacement and a non-Gaussian probability density exhibiting, for instance, exponential or stretched-Gaussian tails. This phenomenon is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-07-24 Jakub Ślęzak , Krzysztof Burnecki , Ralf Metzler

A general theory is developed to study individual based models which are discrete in time. We begin by constructing a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-06-03 Joseph D. Challenger , Duccio Fanelli , Alan J. McKane

In this paper, we investigate the construction of a diffusion process whose time-marginal densities are constrained to belong to a given set at all time. The construction is obtained from a penalization approximation to the constraint set,…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-20 Jean-Francois Jabir

A model has two main aims: predicting the behavior of a physical system and understanding its nature, that is how it works, at some desired level of abstraction. A promising recent approach to model building consists in deriving a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-02-26 Marco Baldovin , Andrea Puglisi , Angelo Vulpiani

Inverse problems involve making inference about unknown parameters of a physical process using observational data. This paper investigates an important class of inverse problems -- the estimation of the initial condition of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-09 Xiao Liu , Kyongmin Yeo

In this paper we consider parameter estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes. In particular, we focus on data that are observed at low frequency and methodology that can estimate parameters with uncertainty quantification.…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-01 Jingning Yao , Ajay Jasra , Sheng Jiang

Overdamped Langevin dynamics are reversible stochastic differential equations which are commonly used to sample probability measures in high-dimensional spaces, such as the ones appearing in computational statistical physics and Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-10 Tony Lelièvre , Grigorios A. Pavliotis , Geneviève Robin , Régis Santet , Gabriel Stoltz

Drawing from the theory of stochastic differential equations, we introduce a novel sampling method for known distributions and a new algorithm for diffusion generative models with unknown distributions. Our approach is inspired by the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-12 Xicheng Zhang

The stochastic properties of a Langevin-type Markov process can be extracted from a given time series by a Markov analysis. Also processes that obey a stochastically forced second order differential equation can be analyzed this way by…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-12-09 Bernd Lehle , Joachim Peinke

We formulate, and present a numerical method for solving, an inverse problem for inferring parameters of a deterministic model from stochastic observational data (quantities of interest). The solution, given as a probability measure, is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-05-04 T. Butler , J. D. Jakeman , T. Wildey

A new approach for the analysis of Langevin-type stochastic processes in the presence of strong measurement noise is presented. For the case of Gaussian distributed, exponentially correlated, measurement noise it is possible to extract the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-05-29 Bernd Lehle

Diffusion in nonhomogeneous media is described by a dynamical process driven by a general Levy noise and subordinated to a random time; the subordinator depends on the position. This problem is approximated by a multiplicative process…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-18 Tomasz Srokowski

Sample-based Bayesian inference provides a route to uncertainty quantification in the geosciences, and inverse problems in general, though is very computationally demanding in the naive form that requires simulating an accurate computer…

Computation · Statistics 2019-04-12 Tiangang Cui , Colin Fox , Michael J O'Sullivan

Bayesian filtering deals with computing the posterior distribution of the state of a stochastic dynamic system given noisy observations. In this paper, motivated by applications in counter-adversarial systems, we consider the following…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-28 Robert Mattila , Cristian R. Rojas , Vikram Krishnamurthy , Bo Wahlberg

In the presence of quantum measurements with direct photon detection the evolution of open quantum systems is usually described by stochastic master equations with jumps. Heuristically, from these equations one can obtain diffusion models…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-05-13 Clement Pellegrini , Francesco Petruccione

The diffusion approximation of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in current literature is only valid on a finite time interval. In this paper, we establish the uniform-in-time diffusion approximation of SGD, by only assuming that the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-12 Lei Li , Yuliang Wang

The Inverse First Passage time problem seeks to determine the boundary corresponding to a given stochastic process and a fixed first passage time distribution. Here, we determine the numerical solution of this problem in the case of a two…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-17 Alessia Civallero , Cristina Zucca

This paper provides a general and abstract approach to approximate ergodic regimes of Markov and Feller processes. More precisely, we show that the recursive algorithm presented in Lamberton & Pages (2002) and based on simulation algorithms…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-17 Gilles Pagès , Clément Rey

A key task in Bayesian machine learning is sampling from distributions that are only specified up to a partition function (i.e., constant of proportionality). One prevalent example of this is sampling posteriors in parametric distributions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-10 Rong Ge , Holden Lee , Andrej Risteski