Related papers: Seismic quiescence and b-value decrease before lar…
We report on a novel stochastic analysis of seismic time series for the Earth's vertical velocity, by using methods originally developed for complex hierarchical systems, and in particular for turbulent flows. Analysis of the fluctuations…
We develop a technique to estimate spatially varying seismicity patterns. It is based on a Gaussian approximation of the underlying Poisson Process. A link function is used to estimate local moments of the seismicity from observed…
A likely source of earthquake clustering is static stress transfer between individual events. Previous attempts to quantify the role of static stress for earthquake triggering generally considered only the stress changes caused by large…
We present results on a stochastic forest fire model, where the influence of the neighbour trees is treated in a more realistic way than usual and the definition of neighbourhood can be tuned by an additional parameter. This model exhibits…
Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to…
We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of…
We introduce a simple mathematical model for bushfires accounting for temperature diffusion in the presence of a combustion term which is activated above a given ignition state. The model also takes into consideration the effect of the…
Forest transitions, characterized by dynamic shifts between forest, agricultural, and abandoned lands, are complex phenomena. This study developed a stochastic differential equation model to capture the intricate dynamics of these…
Earthquake monitoring is necessary to promptly identify the affected areas, the severity of the events, and, finally, to estimate damages and plan the actions needed for the restoration process. The use of seismic stations to monitor the…
Due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications, many of which are coming with safety requirements, the notion of uncertainty has received increasing attention in machine learning research in the last…
Forest-fire waiting times, defined as the time between successive events above a certain size in a given region, are calculated for Italy. The probability densities of the waiting times are found to verify a scaling law, despite that fact…
The response of dynamical systems to varying conditions and disturbances is a fundamental aspect of their analysis. In spatially extended systems, particularly in pattern-forming systems, there are many possible responses, including…
Discoveries of the scale-free and small-world features are reported on a network constructed from the seismic data. It is shown that the connectivity distribution decays as a power law, and the value of the degrees of separation, i.e., the…
It has been observed that the earthquake events possess short-term memory, i.e. that events occurring in a particular location are dependent on the short history of that location. We conduct an analysis to see whether real-time earthquake…
We study the statistics of simulated earthquakes in a quasistatic model of two parallel heterogeneous faults within a slowly driven elastic tectonic plate. The probability that one fault remains dormant while the other is active for a time…
Self-similarity may stem from two origins: the process' increments infinite variance and/or process' memory. The $b$-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law comes from the first origin. In the frame of natural time analysis of earthquake data, a…
Fires and rainfall are major mechanisms that regulate woody and grassy biomasses in savanna ecosystems. Conditions of long-lasting coexistence of trees and grasses have been mainly studied using continuous-time modelling of tree-grass…
Earthquake occurrence in nature is thought to result from correlated elastic stresses, leading to clustering in space and time. We show that occurrence of major earthquakes in California correlates with time intervals when fluctuations in…
Spatiotemporal properties of seismicity are investigated for a worldwide (WW) catalog and for Southern California in the stationary case (SC), showing a nearly universal scaling behavior. Distributions of distances between consecutive…
Active faults release elastic strain energy via a whole continuum of modes of slip, ranging from devastating earthquakes to Slow Slip Events and persistent creep. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of rapid, dynamic…