Related papers: Intrinsic noise in systems with switching environm…
This paper introduces a novel methodology for the identification of switching dynamics for switched autoregressive linear models. Switching behavior is assumed to follow a Markov model. The system's outputs are contaminated by possibly…
This paper introduces a novel stochastic framework for modelling tax evasion dynamics by extending the deterministic model of Bertotti and Modanese (2018) through the use of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs). A key limitation…
We consider a stochastic population model where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation approach coupled with a WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin)…
Stochastic transitions between discrete microscopic states play an important role in many physical and biological systems. Often, these transitions lead to fluctuations on a macroscopic scale. A classic example from neuroscience is the…
A noise source model, consisting of a pulse sequence at random times with memory, is presented. By varying the memory we can obtain variable randomness of the stochastic process. The delay time between pulses, i. e. the noise memory,…
Understanding under what conditions interacting populations, whether they be plants, animals, or viral particles, coexist is a question of theoretical and practical importance in population biology. Both biotic interactions and…
This study introduces a comparative modeling framework using stationary and non-stationary transition probabilities within a Markov Decision Process (MDP) to assess COVID-19 disease dynamics. Stationary transition probabilities assume…
We cast episodic Markov decision process (MDP) planning as Bayesian inference over policies. A policy is treated as the latent variable and is assigned an unnormalized probability of optimality that is monotone in its expected return,…
This paper deals with the question of how to most effectively conduct experiments in Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes so as to provide data that is most informative about a parameter of interest. Methods from Markov decision…
Reinforcement learning in non-stationary environments is challenging due to abrupt and unpredictable changes in dynamics, often causing traditional algorithms to fail to converge. However, in many real-world cases, non-stationarity has some…
We use analytical techniques based on an expansion in the inverse system size to study the stochastic evolutionary dynamics of finite populations of players interacting in a repeated prisoner's dilemma game. We show that a mechanism of…
We consider the effects of noise on a model of epidemic outbreaks, where the outbreaks appear. randomly. Using a constructive transition approach that predicts large outbreaks, prior to their occurrence, we derive an adaptive control.…
In this paper, we analyze the use of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model dynamical systems subjected to bounded noisy perturbations. In order to discuss the main characteristics of this new approach we consider some basic models in…
Modeling stochasticity in gene regulatory networks is an important and complex problem in molecular systems biology. To elucidate intrinsic noise, several modeling strategies such as the Gillespie algorithm have been used successfully. This…
We consider a model for a population in a heterogeneous environment, with logistic type local population dynamics, under the assumption that individuals can switch between two different nonzero rates of diffusion. Such switching behavior…
We consider a class of stochastic dynamical systems, called piecewise deterministic Markov processes, with states $(x, \s)\in \O\times \G$, $\O$ being a region in $\bbR^d$ or the $d$--dimensional torus, $\G$ being a finite set. The…
Populations are made up of an integer number of individuals and are subject to stochastic birth-death processes whose rates may vary in time. Useful quantities, like the chance of ultimate fixation, satisfy an appropriate difference…
Focusing on stochastic systems arising in mean-field models, the systems under consideration belong to the class of switching diffusions, in which continuous dynamics and discrete events coexist and interact. The discrete events are modeled…
Environment plays a fundamental role in the competition for resources, and hence in the evolution of populations. Here, we study a well-mixed, finite population consisting of two strains competing for the limited resources provided by an…
We analyze a class of chemical reaction networks under mass-action kinetics and involving multiple time-scales, whose deterministic and stochastic models display qualitative differences. The networks are inspired by gene-regulatory…