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The right tail asymptotic series consisting of attenuating exponential terms are derived for the densities of Galton-Watson processes with fractional probability generating functions. The frequencies in the exponential factors form fractal…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-13 Anton A. Kutsenko

We consider a time-continuous branching random walk on a one-dimensional lattice on which there is one center (lattice point) of particle generation, called branching source. The generation of particles in the branching source is described…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-19 E. Filichkina , E. Yarovaya

Under mild non-degeneracy assumptions on branching rates in each generation, we provide a criterion for almost-sure extinction of a multi-type branching process with time-dependent branching rates. We also provide a criterion for the total…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-22 Dmitry Dolgopyat , Pratima Hebbar , Leonid Koralov , Mark Perlman

In this paper, we study critical and subcritical branching $\alpha$-stable processes, $\alpha \in (0, 2)$. We obtain the exact asymptotic behaviors of the tails of the maximal positions of all subcritical branching $\alpha$-stable processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-09 Haojie Hou , Yiyang Jiang , Yan-Xia Ren , Renming Song

We consider a continuous-time branching random walk on $\mathbb{Z}$ in a random non homogeneous environment. Particles can walk on the lattice points or disappear with random intensities. The process starts with one particle at initial time…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-12 Vladimir Kutsenko , Stanislav Molchanov , Elena Yarovaya

The linear-fractional Galton-Watson processes is a well known case when many characteristics of a branching process can be computed explicitly. In this paper we extend the two-parameter linear-fractional family to a much richer…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-11 Serik Sagitov , Alexey Lindo

We consider a system of $N$ particles on the real line that evolves through iteration of the following steps: 1) every particle splits into two, 2) each particle jumps according to a prescribed displacement distribution supported on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-24 Jean Bérard , Pascal Maillard

For any branching process, we demonstrate that the typical total number $r_{\rm mp}(\nu \tau)$ of events triggered over all generations within any sufficiently large time window $\tau$ exhibits, at criticality, a super-linear dependence…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-15 A. Saichev , D. Sornette

A branching process in a Markovian environment consists of an irreducible Markov chain on a set of "environments" together with an offspring distribution for each environment. At each time step the chain transitions to a new random…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-22 Lila Greco , Lionel Levine

Consider a critical branching random walk on $\mathbb{Z}^d$, $d\geq 1$, started with a single particle at the origin, and let $L(x)$ be the total number of particles that ever visit a vertex $x$. We study the tail of $L(x)$ under suitable…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-28 Omer Angel , Tom Hutchcroft , Antal A. Járai

Consider a branching random walk on $\mathbb{R}$, with offspring distribution Z and nonnegative displacement distribution W. We say that explosion occurs if an infinite number of particles may be found within a finite distance of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-17 Omid Amini , Luc Devroye , Simon Griffiths , Neil Olver

We classify the possible behaviors of a class of one-dimensional stochastic recurrent growth models. In our main result, we obtain nearly optimal bounds for the tail of hitting times of some compact sets. If the process is an aperiodic…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-08 Etienne Adam

For a stochastic process $\{X_t\}_{t \in T}$ with identical one-dimensional margins and upper endpoint $\tau_{\text{up}}$ its tail correlation function (TCF) is defined through $\chi^{(X)}(s,t) = \lim_{\tau \to \tau_{\text{up}}} P(X_s >…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-25 Ulf-Rainer Fiebig , Kirstin Strokorb , Martin Schlather

For a branching random walk that drifts to infinity, consider its Malthusian martingale, i.e.~the additive martingale with parameter $\theta$ being the smallest root of the characteristic equation. When particles are killed below the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-20 Heng Ma , Pascal Maillard

We investigate a family of discrete-time stationary processes defined by multiple stable integrals and renewal processes with infinite means. The model may exhibit behaviors of short-range or long-range dependence, respectively, depending…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-29 Shuyang Bai , Yizao Wang

Using terminologies of information geometry, we derive upper and lower bounds of the tail probability of the sample mean. Employing these bounds, we obtain upper and lower bounds of the minimum error probability of the 2nd kind of error…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-10 Shun Watanabe , Masahito Hayashi

Let F be a distribution function with negative mean and regularly varying right tail. Under a mild smoothness condition we derive higher order asymptotic expansions for the tail distribution of the maxima of the random walk generated by F.…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ph . Barbe , W. P. McCormick , C. Zhang

We consider subcritical branching processes with immigration which evolve under the influence of a random environment and study the tail distribution of life periods of such processes defined as the length of the time interval between the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-10 Doudou Li , Vladimir Vatutin , Mei Zhang

The study of loss function distributions is critical to characterize a model's behaviour on a given machine learning problem. For example, while the quality of a model is commonly determined by the average loss assessed on a testing set,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Etrit Haxholli , Marco Lorenzi

We consider a critical branching particle system in $\R^d$, composed of individuals of a finite number of types $i\in\{1,...,K\}$. Each individual of type $i$ moves independently according to a symmetric $\alpha_i$-stable motion. We assume…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-07-04 Peter Kevei , Jose Alfredo Lopez Mimbela