Related papers: A Fractional-Order Infectivity SIR Model
This paper seeks to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic based on daily published data from Worldometer website, using a time-dependent SIR model. Our findings indicate that this model fits well such data, for different chosen…
This paper is concerned with SIR (susceptible $\to$ infected $\to$ removed) household epidemic models in which the infection response may be either mild or severe, with the type of response also affecting the infectiousness of an…
Epidemiological modeling is vital in understanding disease dynamics and guiding public health interventions. This study presents a time-fractional SEIR model to describe the transmission dynamics of Mpox, incorporating memory effects via…
In this work, we study the evolution of the susceptible individuals during the spread of an epidemic modeled by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) process spreading on the top of complex networks. Using an edge-based compartmental…
Traditional epidemic models consider that individual processes occur at constant rates. That is, an infected individual has a constant probability per unit time of recovering from infection after contagion. This assumption certainly fails…
We consider the SIR epidemiological model applied to the evolution of COVID-19 with two approaches. In the first place we fit a global SIR model, with time delay, and constant parameters throughout the outbreak, including the contagion…
We study an individual-based stochastic spatial epidemic model where the number of locations and the number of individuals at each location both grow to infinity. Each individual is associated with a random infection-age dependent…
An ultrametric model of epidemic spread of infections based on the classical SIR model is proposed. Ultrametrics on a set of individuals based on theire hierarchical clustering relativly to the average time of infectious contact is…
In this paper, we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Removal (SIR) model with time fused coefficients. In particular, our proposed model discovers the underlying time homogeneity pattern for the SIR model's transmission rate and removal rate…
A standard model for epidemics is the SIR model on a graph. We introduce a simple algorithm that uses the early infection times from a sample path of the SIR model to estimate the parameters this model, and we provide a performance…
We provide a probabilistic SIRD model for the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, where we allow the infection, recovery and death rates to be random. In particular, the underlying random factor is driven by a fractional Brownian motion. Our model…
We study a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model with multiple seeds on a regular random graph. Many researchers have studied the epidemic threshold of epidemic models above which a global outbreak can occur, starting from an…
The transmission rate of many acute infectious diseases varies significantly in time, but the underlying mechanisms are usually uncertain. They may include seasonal changes in the environment, contact rate, immune system response, etc. The…
We propose a compartmental model for a disease with temporary immunity and secondary infections. From our assumptions on the parameters involved in the model, the system naturally evolves in three time scales. We characterize the equilibria…
We study an individual-based stochastic epidemic model in which infected individuals become susceptible again following each infection. In contrast to classical compartment models, after each infection, the infectivity is a random function…
There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the…
In this paper, we propose a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model, in which each node is assigned with an identical capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step. In contrast to the previous studies, we find that on…
The critical behavior of the stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice is obtained by numerical simulations and finite-size scaling. The order parameter as well as the distribution in the number of recovered…
The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the…
We present an exact analytical solution to a one-dimensional model of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic type, with infection rates dependent on nearest-neighbor occupations. We use a quantum mechanical approach, transforming…