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We establish higher-order nonasymptotic expansions for a difference between probability distributions of sums of i.i.d. random vectors in a Euclidean space. The derived bounds are uniform over two classes of sets: the set of all Euclidean…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-30 Mayya Zhilova

We construct an example of a continuous centered random process with light tails of finite-dimensional distribution but with (relatively) heavy tail of maximum distribution. The apparatus for tails comparison are embedding results for…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-08-25 Eugene Ostrovsky , Leonid Sirota

We consider multivariate extreme value statistics for independent but nonidentically distributed random vectors. In particular, the data may have varying tail copulas and also heteroscedastic marginal distributions. Assuming smoothly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 John H. J. Einmahl , Chen Zhou

In this paper, we propose a reduced-bias estimator of the EVI for Pareto-type tails (heavy-tailed) distributions. This is derived using the weighted least squares method. It is shown that the estimator is unbiased, consistent and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-12 E. Ocran , R. Minkah , K. Doku-Amponsah

Max-stable distributions and processes are important models for extreme events and the assessment of tail risks. The full, multivariate likelihood of a parametric max-stable distribution is complicated and only recent advances enable its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-08 Clement Dombry , Sebastian Engelke , Marco Oesting

We study random design linear regression with no assumptions on the distribution of the covariates and with a heavy-tailed response variable. In this distribution-free regression setting, we show that boundedness of the conditional second…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-25 Jaouad Mourtada , Tomas Vaškevičius , Nikita Zhivotovskiy

We consider a one-dimensional random walk $S_n$ with i.i.d. increments with zero mean and finite variance. We study the asymptotic expansion for the tail distribution $\mathbf P(\tau_x>n)$ of the first passage times…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-19 Denis Denisov , Alexander Tarasov , Vitali Wachtel

A theoretical expression is derived for the mean squared error of a nonparametric estimator of the tail dependence coefficient, depending on a threshold that defines which rank delimits the tails of a distribution. We propose a new method…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-25 Matthieu Garcin , Maxime L. D. Nicolas

Recently attention has been drawn to practical problems with the use of unbounded Pareto distributions, for instance when there are natural upper bounds that truncate the probability tail. Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006) derived the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-12-24 Jan Beirlant , Isabel Fraga Alves , Ivette Gomes , Mark M. Meerschaert

Modern statistical analyses often encounter datasets with massive sizes and heavy-tailed distributions. For datasets with massive sizes, traditional estimation methods can hardly be used to estimate the extreme value index directly. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Yongxin Li , Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Hansheng Wang

Let X be a generalised symmetrised Dirichlet random vector in R^k, and let u_n be thresholds such that P{X> u_n} tends to 0 as n goes infinity. In this paper we derive an exact asymptotic expansion of P{X> u_n} assuming that the associated…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-04-20 Enkelejd Hashorva

We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-05 Ulrich K. Mueller

Let $\eta_1$, $\eta_2,\ldots$ be independent copies of a random variable $\eta$ with zero mean and finite variance which is bounded from the right, that is, $\eta\leq b$ almost surely for some $b>0$. Considering different types of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-17 Alexander Iksanov , Vitali Wachtel

Extreme value theory provides rigorous theory and statistical tools for extrapolation in machine learning, particularly in settings where traditional methods struggle due to data scarcity in the tails. A broad range of tasks benefit from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Sebastian Engelke , Nicola Gnecco , Anne Sabourin

This paper considers the asymptotic distribution of the longest edge of the minimal spanning tree and nearest neighbor graph on X_1,...,X_{N_n} where X_1,X_2,... are i.i.d. in \Re^2 with distribution F and N_n is independent of the X_i and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Tailen Hsing , Holger Rootzen

We study the extremality of nonexpansive mappings on a nonempty bounded closed and convex subset of a normed space (therein specific Banach spaces). We show that surjective isometries are extremal in this sense for many Banach spaces,…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2025-02-06 Christian Bargetz , Michael Dymond , Katriin Pirk

In traditional extreme value analysis, the bulk of the data is ignored, and only the tails of the distribution are used for inference. Extreme observations are specified as values that exceed a threshold or as maximum values over distinct…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-20 Mitchell Krock , Julie Bessac , Michael L. Stein , Adam H. Monahan

For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-18 Liujun Chen , Deyuan Li , Chen Zhou

Causal inference for extreme events has many potential applications in fields such as climate science, medicine and economics. We study the extremal quantile treatment effect of a binary treatment on a continuous, heavy-tailed outcome.…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-06 David Deuber , Jinzhou Li , Sebastian Engelke , Marloes H. Maathuis

Standard statistical analysis is unable to provide reliable confidence intervals on expectation values of probability distributions that do not satisfy the conditions of the central limit theorem. We present a regression-based estimator of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2019-06-24 Pablo Lopez Rios , Gareth J. Conduit