Related papers: Imperfect demand estimation for new product produc…

Across domains such as medicine, employment, and criminal justice, predictive models often target labels that imperfectly reflect the outcomes of interest to experts and policymakers. For example, clinical risk assessments deployed to…

Recent years have seen a resurgence in interest in marketing mix models (MMMs), which are aggregate-level models of marketing effectiveness. Often these models incorporate nonlinear effects, and either implicitly or explicitly assume that…

In this paper, we introduce a model that adds a non-linearity to discounting: the discounting factor may depend on the notional (i.e., discounted values are no longer linear in the notional). In the first part of the paper, we provide a…

Local variable selection aims to test for the effect of covariates on an outcome within specific regions. We outline a challenge that arises in the presence of non-linear effects and model misspecification. Specifically, for common…

Reliable demand forecasts are critical for the effective supply chain management. Several endogenous and exogenous variables can influence the dynamics of demand, and hence a single statistical model that only consists of historical sales…

Online platforms have a wealth of data, run countless experiments and use industrial-scale algorithms to optimize user experience. Despite this, many users seem to regret the time they spend on these platforms. One possible explanation is…

Inferring information from a set of acquired data is the main objective of any signal processing (SP) method. In particular, the common problem of estimating the value of a vector of parameters from a set of noisy measurements is at the…

Often in prediction tasks, the predictive model itself can influence the distribution of the target variable, a phenomenon termed performative prediction. Generally, this influence stems from strategic actions taken by stakeholders with a…

This paper proposes a two-stage pricing strategy for nondurable (such as typical electronics) products, where retail price is cut down at certain time points of the product lifecycle. We consider learning effect of electronic products that,…

Fashion discounters face the problem of ordering the right amount of pieces in each size of a product. The product is ordered in pre-packs containing a certain size-mix of a product. For this so-called lot-type design problem, a stochastic…

In many parameter estimation problems, the exact model is unknown and is assumed to belong to a set of candidate models. In such cases, a predetermined data-based selection rule selects a parametric model from a set of candidates before the…

Many of the observations we make are biased by our decisions. For instance, the demand of items is impacted by the prices set, and online checkout choices are influenced by the assortments presented. The challenge in decision-making under…

In this paper, we study the offline sequential feature-based pricing and inventory control problem where the current demand depends on the past demand levels and any demand exceeding the available inventory is lost. Our goal is to leverage…

Empirical research typically involves a robustness-efficiency tradeoff. A researcher seeking to estimate a scalar parameter can invoke strong assumptions to motivate a restricted estimator that is precise but may be heavily biased, or they…

Dynamical systems are frequently used to model biological systems. When these models are fit to data it is necessary to ascertain the uncertainty in the model fit. Here we present prediction deviation, a new metric of uncertainty that…

This paper considers fixed effects (FE) estimation for linear panel data models under possible model misspecification when both the number of individuals, $n$, and the number of time periods, $T$, are large. We first clarify the probability…

Inverse optimization has been increasingly used to estimate unknown parameters in an optimization model based on decision data. We show that such a point estimation is insufficient in a prescriptive setting where the estimated parameters…

Fashion merchandising is one of the most complicated problems in forecasting, given the transient nature of trends in colours, prints, cuts, patterns, and materials in fashion, the economies of scale achievable only in bulk production, as…

We study the problem of pricing under a Multinomial Logit model where we incorporate network effects over the consumer's decisions. We analyse both cases, when sellers compete or collaborate. In particular, we pay special attention to the…

The classic newsvendor model yields an optimal decision for a ``newsvendor'' selecting a quantity of inventory, under the assumption that the demand is drawn from a known distribution. Motivated by applications such as cloud provisioning…