Related papers: Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennia…
Paleoclimate proxies reveal abrupt transitions of the North Atlantic climate during past glacial intervals known as Dansgaard--Oeschger (DO) events. A central feature of DO events is a sudden warming of about 10$^{\circ}$C in Greenland…
During the last ice age there were several quasi-periodic abrupt warming events. The climatic effects of the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest and most abrupt…
During the last ice age several quasi-periodic abrupt warming events took place. Known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature anomalies.…
By comparing the high-resolution isotopic records from the GRIP and NGRIP icecores, we approximately separate the climate signal from local noise to obtain an objective criterion for defining Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Our analysis…
We propose a conceptual model which generates abrupt climate changes akin to Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In the model these abrupt climate changes are not triggered by external perturbations but rather emerge in a dynamic self-consistent…
North Atlantic climate during glacial times was characterized by large-amplitude switchings, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, with an apparent tendency to recur preferably in multiples of about 1470 years. Recent work interpreted these…
Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be…
Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold…
Paleoclimate proxy records from Greenland ice cores, archiving e.g. $\delta^{18}$O as a proxy for surface temperature, show that sudden climatic shifts called Dansgaard-Oeschger events (DO) occurred repeatedly during the last glacial…
Ice sheets appeared in the northern hemisphere around 3 million years ago and glacial-interglacial cycles have paced Earth's climate since then. Superimposed on these long glacial cycles comes an intricate pattern of millennial and…
A review of the recent refereed literature fails to confirm quantitatively that carbon dioxide (CO2) radiative forcing was the prime mover in the changes in temperature, ice-sheet volume, and related climatic variables in the glacial and…
Orbital forcing plays a key role in pacing the glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the mechanistic linkages between the orbital parameters - eccentricity, obliquity, and precession - and global ice volume remain unclear. Here, we…
It is tested whether past abrupt climate changes support the validity of statistical early-warning signals (EWS) as predictor of future climate tipping points. EWS are expected increases in amplitude and correlation of fluctuations driven…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
Regional climate change in the $21^{st}$ century will result from the interplay between human-induced changes and internal climate variability. Competing effects from greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling have historically caused…
The glacial cycles are attributed to the climatic response of the orbital changes in the irradiance to the Earth. These changes in the forcing are to small to explain the observed climate variations as simple linear responses. Non-linear…
Climate variability over the past million years shows a strong glacial-interglacial cycle of ~100,000 years as a combined result of Milankovitch orbital forcing and climatic resonance. It has been suggested that anthropogenic contributions…
Modeling globally averaged information on climate forcing from the land surface temperature data, the sea surface temperatures (SST) and the empirically determined relationship between the changes in SST and the turbulent diffusion of heat…
A set of idealized experiments are performed to analyze the competing effects of declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the opening of an ocean gateway, and varying orbital parameters. These forcing mechanisms, which influence the global…
The stochastic Arctic sea ice model described as a single periodic non-autonomous stochastic ordinary differential equation (ODE) is useful in explaining the seasonal variability of Arctic sea ice. However, to be nearer to realistic…