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The solution of energy-balance model of the Earth global climate and the EPICA Dome C and Vostok experimental data of the Earth surface palaeotemperature evolution over past 420 and 740 kyr are compared. In the framework of proposed…

Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…

Applications · Statistics 2016-12-21 Won Chang , Michael L. Stein , Jiali Wang , V. Rao Kotamarthi , Elisabeth J. Moyer

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-03-05 James Hansen , Makiko Sato , Gary Russell , Pushker Kharecha

Recent Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations of the twentieth century climate, which account for anthropogenic and natural forcings, make it possible to study the origin of long-term temperature correlations…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-06-26 Dmitry Vyushin , Igor Zhidkov , Shlomo Havlin , Armin Bunde , Stephen Brenner

The mechanisms of interaction between the seasonal cycle and ENSO are investigated using the Zebiak and Cane ENSO prediction model. The most dominant seasonal effect is found to be due to the wind divergence field, as determined by the…

ao-sci · Physics 2008-02-03 Eli Tziperman , Steve Zebiak , Mark Cane

Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-01-24 Beatrice Ellerhoff , Kira Rehfeld

The Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is modelled with the help of a simple model representing a classical damped oscillator forced by external forcing. Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean equatorial Pacific thermocline…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Vladimir N. Stepanov

We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar…

Geophysics · Physics 2010-05-31 Nicola Scafetta

Low-order climate models can play an important role in understanding low-frequency variability in the atmospheric circulation and how forcing consistent with anthropogenic climate change may affect this variability. Here, we study a…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-02-04 Bernardo Maraldi , Henk Dijkstra , Michael Ghil

In this study we used HadCRUT4 temperature anomalies for 1950-2013 years in order to investigate properties of recent warming. Our aim was to separate changes produced by short-term ENSO variations and to look on temporal and spatial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-06-24 P. V Belolipetsky

It is well acknowledged that the sequence of glacial-interglacial cycles is paced by the astronomical forcing. However, how much is the sequence robust against natural fluctuations associated, for example, with the chaotic motions of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-11-11 Takahito Mitsui , Michel Crucifix

We analyze the numerical solutions of a stochastic Arctic sea ice model with constant additive noise over a wide range of external heat-fluxes, $\Delta F_0$, which correspond to greenhouse gas forcing. The variability that the stochasticity…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-05-05 Woosok Moon , John S. Wettlaufer

There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Florian Suerhoff , Andreas Morr , Sebastian Bathiany , Niklas Boers , Christian Kuehn

Global surface temperature records (e.g. HadCRUT4) since 1850 are characterized by climatic oscillations synchronous with specific solar, planetary and lunar harmonics superimposed on a background warming modulation. The latter is related…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-07-16 Nicola Scafetta

The study of Planktonic Foraminifera abundances permits to obtain climatic curves on the basis of percentage ratio between tropical and temperate/polar forms. Climatic changes were controlled by several phenomena as: (i) Milankovitch's…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 A. Caruso , M. E. Gargano , D. Valenti , A. Fiasconaro , B. Spagnolo

Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Myungsoo Yoo , Likun Zhang , Christopher K. Wikle , Thomas Opitz

A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-01-27 Theodoros Economou , David B. Stephenson , Christopher A. T. Ferro

Turbulent reacting flows confined to ducts are plagued by thermoacoustic instability, a state in which a positive feedback between flow, flame and acoustic perturbations leads to the emergence of catastrophically high-amplitude oscillatory…

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two dominant modes of tropical climate variability, each with profound global weather impacts. While their individual dynamics have been widely studied,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-22 Yinling Zhang , Nan Chen , Charlotte Moser

We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms…