Related papers: Simultaneous confidence bands for contrasts betwee…
Frequentist model averaging has been proposed as a method for incorporating "model uncertainty" into confidence interval construction. Such proposals have been of particular interest in the environmental and ecological statistics…
This paper considers the difference of stop-loss payoffs where the underlying is a difference of two random variables. The goal is to study whether the comonotonic and countermonotonic modifications of those two random variables can be used…
A novel confidence interval estimator is proposed for the risk difference in noninferiority binomial trials. The confidence interval is consistent with an exact unconditional test that preserves the type-I error, and has improved power,…
In high dimensional percolation at parameter $p < p_c$, the one-arm probability $\pi_p(n)$ is known to decay exponentially on scale $(p_c - p)^{-1/2}$. We show the same statement for the ratio $\pi_p(n) / \pi_{p_c}(n)$, establishing a form…
We study distribution free, nonparametric prediction bands with a special focus on their finite sample behavior. First we investigate and develop different notions of finite sample coverage guarantees. Then we give a new prediction band…
Probabilistic regression models typically use the Maximum Likelihood Estimation or Cross-Validation to fit parameters. These methods can give an advantage to the solutions that fit observations on average, but they do not pay attention to…
This paper presents a new method to estimate systematic errors in the maximum-likelihood regression of count data. The method is applicable in particular to X-ray spectra in situations where the Poisson log-likelihood, or the Cash…
Estimating the maximum mean finds a variety of applications in practice. In this paper, we study estimation of the maximum mean using an upper confidence bound (UCB) approach where the sampling budget is adaptively allocated to one of the…
We consider the problem of constructing Bayesian based confidence sets for linear functionals in the inverse Gaussian white noise model. We work with a scale of Gaussian priors indexed by a regularity hyper-parameter and apply the…
In Poisson Boolean models with deterministic ball grains, the directional visible range from an uncovered point is known to be exponentially distributed in Euclidean and real hyperbolic space. We show that the same phenomenon holds on every…
In stochastic simulation, input uncertainty refers to the propagation of the statistical noise in calibrating input models to impact output accuracy, in addition to the Monte Carlo simulation noise. The vast majority of the input…
We study general nonlinear models for time series networks of integer and continuous valued data. The vector of high dimensional responses, measured on the nodes of a known network, is regressed non-linearly on its lagged value and on…
Concentration inequalities form an essential toolkit in the study of high dimensional (HD) statistical methods. Most of the relevant statistics literature in this regard is based on sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential tail assumptions. In this…
In this article we derive an unbiased expression for the expected mean-squared error associated with continuously differentiable estimators of the noncentrality parameter of a chi-square random variable. We then consider the task of…
We re-examine a lower-tail upper bound for the random variable $$X=\prod_{i=1}^{\infty}\min\left\{\sum_{k=1}^iE_k,1\right\},$$ where $E_1,E_2,\ldots\stackrel{iid}\sim\text{Exp}(1)$. This bound has found use in root-finding and seed-finding…
Confidence sequences are confidence intervals that can be sequentially tracked, and are valid at arbitrary data-dependent stopping times. This paper presents confidence sequences for a univariate mean of an unknown distribution with a known…
In this paper we propose and examine gap statistics for assessing uniform distribution hypotheses. We provide examples relevant to data integrity testing for which max-gap statistics provide greater sensitivity than chi-square ($\chi^2$),…
We consider the estimation of a bounded regression function with nonparametric heteroscedastic noise and random design. We study the true and empirical excess risks of the least-squares estimator on finite-dimensional vector spaces. We give…
We consider a general regression model, without a scale parameter. Our aim is to construct a confidence interval for a scalar parameter of interest $\theta$ that utilizes the uncertain prior information that a distinct scalar parameter…
We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for the population mean of $N$ values $\{x_1, \ldots, x_N\} \subset \Sigma^N$ based on a random sample of size $n$, denoted by $X^n \equiv (X_1, \ldots, X_n)$, drawn…