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We consider estimation and inference of the effects of a policy in the absence of an untreated or control group. We obtain unbiased estimators of individual (heterogeneous) treatment effects and a consistent and asymptotically normal…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-13 Irene Botosaru , Raffaella Giacomini , Martin Weidner

Specifications that impose constant treatment effects are common but biased, while fully flexible alternatives can be imprecise or infeasible. Under a bound on treatment effect heterogeneity, we propose a generalized ridge estimator,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-07 Soonwoo Kwon , Liyang Sun

I propose an event study extension of Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) estimators. I show that, in simple and staggered adoption designs, estimators from Arkhangelsky et al. (2021) can be disaggregated into dynamic treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-04 Diego Ciccia

Since the initial work by Ashenfelter and Card in 1985, the use of difference-in-differences (DID) study design has become widespread. However, as pointed out in the literature, this popular quasi-experimental design also suffers estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-31 Xiaoming Wang , Sukun Wang

In medicine, treatments often influence multiple, interdependent outcomes, such as primary endpoints, complications, adverse events, or other secondary endpoints. Hence, to make optimal treatment decisions, clinicians are interested in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-03 Yuchen Ma , Jonas Schweisthal , Hengrui Zhang , Stefan Feuerriegel

Under what circumstances is it a threat to the parallel trends assumption required for Difference in Differences (DiD) studies if treatment decisions are based on past values of the outcome? We explore via simulation studies whether…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-02 Zach Shahn

We combine two recently proposed nonparametric difference-in-differences methods, extending them to enable the examination of treatment effect heterogeneity in the staggered adoption setting using machine learning. The proposed method,…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-19 Julia Hatamyar , Noemi Kreif , Rudi Rocha , Martin Huber

Numerous empirical studies employ regression discontinuity designs with multiple cutoffs and heterogeneous treatments. A common practice is to normalize all the cutoffs to zero and estimate one effect. This procedure identifies the average…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-06 Marinho Bertanha

This paper examines the identification and estimation of treatment effects in staggered adoption designs -- a common extension of the canonical Difference-in-Differences (DiD) model to multiple groups and time-periods -- in the presence of…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-24 Clara Augustin , Daniel Gutknecht , Cenchen Liu

This paper studies identification of average treatment effects in a panel data setting. It introduces a novel nonparametric factor model and proves identification of average treatment effects. The identification proof is based on the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-26 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

The present paper proposes a new treatment effects estimator that is valid when the number of time periods is small, and the parallel trends condition holds conditional on covariates and unobserved heterogeneity in the form of interactive…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-16 Nicholas Brown , Kyle Butts , Joakim Westerlund

The conventional Two-Way Fixed-Effects (TWFE) estimator has come under scrutiny lately. Recent literature has revealed potential shortcomings of TWFE when the treatment effects are heterogeneous. Scholars have developed new advanced dynamic…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-23 Tobias Rüttenauer , Ozan Aksoy

State-level policy evaluations commonly employ a difference-in-differences (DID) study design; yet within this framework, statistical model specification varies notably across studies. Motivated by applied state-level opioid policy…

We propose the Sequential Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (Sequential SDiD) estimator for event studies with staggered treatment adoption, particularly when the parallel trends assumption fails. The method uses an iterative imputation…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-23 Dmitry Arkhangelsky , Aleksei Samkov

This paper considers the identification of dynamic treatment effects with panel data, in complex designs where the treatment may not be binary and may not be absorbing. We first show that under no-anticipation and parallel-trends…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-23 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Difference-in-differences is a popular method for observational health policy evaluation. It relies on a causal assumption that in the absence of intervention, treatment groups' outcomes would have evolved in parallel to those of comparison…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Alyssa Bilinski , Laura A. Hatfield

We develop a difference-in-differences framework to measure the persuasive impact of informational treatments on behavior. We introduce two causal parameters, the forward and backward average persuasion rates on the treated, which refine…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-13 Sung Jae Jun , Sokbae Lee

We address the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data, adopting the popular Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework under the conditional parallel trends assumption. We propose a novel doubly robust…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Hui Lan , Haoge Chang , Eleanor Dillon , Vasilis Syrgkanis

We study two-way-fixed-effects regressions (TWFE) with several treatment variables. Under a parallel trends assumption, we show that the coefficient on each treatment identifies a weighted sum of that treatment's effect, with possibly…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-04-18 Clément de Chaisemartin , Xavier D'Haultfœuille

Standard instrumental variables (IV) methods identify a Local Average Treatment Effect under monotonicity, which rules out defiers. In many empirical environments, however, distinct instruments may induce heterogeneous and even opposing…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-16 Johann Caro-Burnett
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