Related papers: Les indicateus avanc\'es de l'inflation en RDCongo
In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and…
This paper addresses the structure and dynamics of an open market economy and its relations with the real interest rate. In this respect, the paper is situated within a broad conventional literature. However, it departs from the standard…
This paper studies inflation in small open economies with production networks. I show that the production network alters the elasticity of the consumer price index (CPI) to changes in sectoral technology, factor prices, and import prices.…
Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…
We analyze the relative price change of assets starting from basic supply/demand considerations subject to arbitrary motivations. The resulting stochastic differential equation has coefficients that are functions of supply and demand. We…
This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on…
Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is a widely used measurement of economic growth representing the market value of all final goods and services produced by a country within a given time. In this paper we question the assumption that GDP measures…
The complexity and ambiguity of financial and economic systems, along with frequent changes in the economic environment, have made it difficult to make precise predictions that are supported by theory-consistent explanations. Interpreting…
In economic studies and popular media, interest rates are routinely cited as a major factor behind commodity price fluctuations. At the same time, the transmission channels are far from transparent, leading to long-running debates on the…
The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country's inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to…
Money is more than just a numeric value. It embodies trust and moral gravity, and it offers flexible ways to transact. However, the emergence of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) is set to bring about a drastic change in the future of…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…
Macroeconomists increasingly use external sources of exogenous variation for causal inference. However, unless such external instruments (proxies) capture the underlying shock without measurement error, existing methods are silent on the…
Since the beginning of this century the Colombian monetary authority has conducted monetary policy under a strategy based on setting targets for interest rate and inflation, while allowing the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar in domestic…
The role of collateral in derivative pricing has evolved beyond credit risk mitigation, particularly following the global financial crisis, when funding costs and basis spreads became central to valuation practices. This development…
This study examines the factors influencing the short-term real effective exchange rate (REER) in Uruguay by applying an extended Mundell-Fleming model. Analyzing the impact of the US lending rate (USLR), money supply (M2), inflation (CPI),…
The stability of the inflation rate is a necessary condition for the proper functioning of any capitalist economy. In an economic environment with volatile inflation, the growth of the economy and its distribution among the agents of…
We provide a theoretical framework to examine how carbon pricing policies influence inflation and to estimate the policy-driven impact on goods prices from achieving net-zero emissions. Firms control emissions by adjusting production,…
This paper investigates and compares currency substitution between the currencies of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro. In addition, we develop a model with microeconomic foundations, which identifies difference…
This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between the inflation rate and its proximate determinants in Argentina, using quarterly data over the period 2004-2022 and an error-correction vector model approach. Unlike previous literature,…