Related papers: Forecasting the Integration of Immigrants
We apply stochastic process theory to the analysis of immigrant integration. Using a unique and detailed data set from Spain, we study the relationship between local immigrant density and two social and two economic immigration quantifiers…
Monitoring tools for anticipatory action are increasingly gaining traction to improve the efficiency and timeliness of humanitarian responses. Whilst predictive models can now forecast conflicts with high accuracy, translating these…
How does immigrant integration in a country change with immigration density? Guided by a statistical mechanics perspective we propose a novel approach to this problem. The analysis focuses on classical integration quantifiers such as the…
Most studies on the labor market effects of immigration use repeated cross-sectional data to estimate the effects of immigration on regions. This paper shows that such regional effects are composites of effects that address fundamental…
Migration phenomena and all the related issues, like integration of different social groups, are intrinsically complex problems since they strongly depend on several competitive mechanisms as economic factors, cultural differences and many…
This article studies the stability of solutions of equilibrium equations arising in so-called resource dependent branching processes. We argue that these new models, building on the model already presented by Bruss (1984 a), refined and…
This paper critically reviews the research on the impact of immigration on employment and wages of natives in wealthy countries--where "natives" includes previous immigrants and their descendants. While written for a non-technical audience,…
The objective of this article is to create a framework to study asymptotic equilibria in human populations with a special focus on immigration. We present a new model, based on Resource Dependent Branching Processes, which is now broad…
This paper presents a mixed-methodology to forecast illegal border crossings in Europe across five key migratory routes, with a one-year time horizon. The methodology integrates machine learning techniques with qualitative insights from…
We introduce a general modeling framework to predict the outcomes, at the population level, of individual psychology and behavior. The framework prescribes that researchers build a cost function that embodies knowledge of what trait values…
Forecast combinations have been widely applied in the last few decades to improve forecasting. Estimating optimal weights that can outperform simple averages is not always an easy task. In recent years, the idea of using time series…
This paper proposes a framework for developing forecasting models by streamlining the connections between core components of the developmental process. The proposed framework enables swift and robust integration of new datasets,…
Successfully integrating newcomers into native communities has become a key issue for policy makers, as the growing number of migrants has brought cultural diversity, new skills, and at times, societal tensions to receiving countries. We…
The effects of the so-called "refugee crisis" of 2015-16 continue to dominate the political agenda in Europe. Migration flows were sudden and unexpected, leaving governments unprepared and exposing significant shortcomings in the field of…
International migration is now a significant driver of population change across Europe but the methods available to estimate its true impact upon sub-national areas remain inconsistent, constrained by inadequate systems of measurement and…
Predicting forced displacement is an important undertaking of many humanitarian aid agencies, which must anticipate flows in advance in order to provide vulnerable refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) with shelter, food, and…
As a consequence of the accelerated globalization process, today major cities all over the world are characterized by an increasing multiculturalism. The integration of immigrant communities may be affected by social polarization and…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…
For intelligent transportation systems and autonomous vehicles to operate safely and efficiently, they must reliably predict the future motion and trajectory of surrounding agents within complex traffic environments. At the same time, the…
We study ghetto formation in a population with natives and immigrants in the framework of the two-dimensional Ising-model with Kawasaki-exchange dynamics. It is the phase structure of the Ising model, the integration speed and the…