Related papers: Data-driven prediction strategies for low-frequenc…

Analog forecasting is a nonparametric technique introduced by Lorenz in 1969 which predicts the evolution of states of a dynamical system (or observables defined on the states) by following the evolution of the sample in a historical record…

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…

Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…

We study non-parametric regression estimates for random fields. The data satisfies certain strong mixing conditions and is defined on the regular $N$-dimensional lattice structure. We show consistency and obtain rates of convergence. The…

A nonanticipative analog method is used for the long-term forecast of air temperature extremes. The data to be used for prediction include average daily air temperature, mean visibility, mean wind speed, mean dew point, maximum and minimum…

Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…

Spatiotemporal chaotic systems are difficult to characterize in a model-free manner because of their high dimensionality, strong nonlinearity, and sensitivity to initial conditions. Coupled map lattices, as a representative class of…

We study nonlinear dynamics of the Earth's tropical climate system. For that, we apply a recently developed technique for feature extraction and mode decomposition of spatiotemporal data generated by ergodic dynamical systems. The method…

Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…

This paper proposes stochastic models for the analysis of ocean surface trajectories obtained from freely-drifting satellite-tracked instruments. The proposed time series models are used to summarise large multivariate datasets and infer…

This letter presents a non-parametric modeling approach for forecasting stochastic dynamical systems on low-dimensional manifolds. The key idea is to represent the discrete shift maps on a smooth basis which can be obtained by the diffusion…

We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model…

For oceanographic applications, probabilistic forecasts typically have to deal with i) high-dimensional complex models, and ii) very sparse spatial observations. In search-and-rescue operations at sea, for instance, the short-term…

A deterministic multiscale toy model is studied in which a chaotic fast subsystem triggers rare transitions between slow regimes, akin to weather or climate regimes. Using homogenization techniques, a reduced stochastic parametrization…

We consider the problem of making nonparametric inference in a class of multi-dimensional diffusions in divergence form, from low-frequency data. Statistical analysis in this setting is notoriously challenging due to the intractability of…

1. Analog forecasting has been successful at producing robust forecasts for a variety of ecological and physical processes. Analog forecasting is a mechanism-free nonlinear method that forecasts a system forward in time by examining how…

Analogs are nearest neighbors of the state of a system. By using analogs and their successors in time, one is able to produce empirical forecasts. Several analog forecasting methods have been used in atmospheric applications and tested on…

Predictability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) variability as simulated in the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is established for a set of ensemble experiments. The ensembles consist of identical…

We develop a new methodology for the deterministic forecasting of directional ocean surface waves, based on nonlinear frequency corrections. These frequency corrections can be pre-computed based on measured energy density spectra, and…

Understanding local currents in the North Atlantic region of the ocean is a key part of modelling heat transfer and global climate patterns. Satellites provide a surface signature of the temperature of the ocean with a high horizontal…