English
Related papers

Related papers: Singularity analysis for heavy-tailed random varia…

200 papers

One potential solution to combat the scarcity of tail observations in extreme value analysis is to integrate information from multiple datasets sharing similar tail properties, for instance, a common extreme value index. In other words, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-25 Liujun Chen , Marco Oesting , Chen Zhou

This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-25 Laura Liu , Yulong Wang

Thompson Sampling provides an efficient technique to introduce prior knowledge in the multi-armed bandit problem, along with providing remarkable empirical performance. In this paper, we revisit the Thompson Sampling algorithm under rewards…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Abhimanyu Dubey , Alex Pentland

Motivated by the application of saddlepoint approximations to resampling-based statistical tests, we prove that the Lugannani-Rice formula has vanishing relative error when applied to approximate conditional tail probabilities of averages…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-30 Ziang Niu , Jyotishka Ray Choudhury , Eugene Katsevich

We deal with a general class of extreme-value regression models introduced by Barreto- Souza and Vasconcellos (2011). Our goal is to derive an adjusted likelihood ratio statistic that is approximately distributed as \c{hi}2 with a high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-08-14 Silvia L. P. Ferrari , Eliane C. Pinheiro

We present a very general chaining method which allows one to control the supremum of the empirical process $\sup_{h \in H} |N^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^N h^2(X_i)-\E h^2|$ in rather general situations. We use this method to establish two main…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-08-22 Shahar Mendelson , Grigoris Paouris

Stochastic approximation (SA) is a fundamental iterative framework with broad applications in reinforcement learning and optimization. Classical analyses typically rely on martingale difference or Markov noise with bounded second moments,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-23 Siddharth Chandak , Anuj Yadav , Ayfer Ozgur , Nicholas Bambos

Constant-specified and exponential concentration inequalities play an essential role in the finite-sample theory of machine learning and high-dimensional statistics area. We obtain sharper and constants-specified concentration inequalities…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-04 Huiming Zhang , Haoyu Wei

This work prepares new probability bounds for sums of random, independent, Hermitian tensors. These probability bounds characterize large-deviation behavior of the extreme eigenvalue of the sums of random tensors. We extend Lapalace…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Shih Yu Chang

A random variable $\xi$ has a {\it light-tailed} distribution (for short: is light-tailed) if it possesses a finite exponential moment, $\E \exp (\lambda \xi) <\infty$ for some $\lambda >0$, and has a {\it heavy-tailed} distribution (is…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-09 Sergey Foss , Michael Scheutzow , Anton Tarasenko

For a martingale $(X_n)$ converging almost surely to a random variable $X$, the sequence $(X_n - X)$ is called martingale tail sum. Recently, Neininger [Random Structures Algorithms, 46 (2015), 346-361] proved a central limit theorem for…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-23 Henning Sulzbach

Two old conjectures from problem sections, one of which from SIAM Review, concern the question of finding distributions that maximize P(Sn <= t), where Sn is the sum of i.i.d. random variables X1, ..., Xn on the interval [0,1], satisfying…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-08-13 Ludolf E. Meester

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-07 Denis Belomestny , Pierre Menard , Alexey Naumov , Daniil Tiapkin , Michal Valko

Heavy tailed phenomena are naturally analyzed by extreme value statistics. A crucial step in such an analysis is the estimation of the extreme value index, which describes the tail heaviness of the underlying probability distribution. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-18 Hanan Ahmed , John H. J. Einmahl

In this paper, we introduce some adaptive methods for solving variational inequalities with relatively strongly monotone operators. Firstly, we focus on the modification of the recently proposed, in smooth case [1], adaptive numerical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-01 A. A. Titov , S. S. Ablaev , M. S. Alkousa , F. S. Stonyakin , A. V. Gasnikov

``Localization'' has proven to be a valuable tool in the Statistical Learning literature as it allows sharp risk bounds in terms of the problem geometry. Localized bounds seem to be much less exploited in the Stochastic Optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-30 Roberto I. Oliveira , Philip Thompson

We build a sharp approximation of the whole distribution of the sum of iid heavy-tailed random vectors, combining mean and extreme behaviors. It extends the so-called 'normex' approach from a univariate to a multivariate framework. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-11-16 Marie Kratz , Evgeny Prokopenko

We study the large-width asymptotics of random fully connected neural networks with weights drawn from $\alpha$-stable distributions, a family of heavy-tailed distributions arising as the limiting distributions in the Gnedenko-Kolmogorov…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-12 Tomás Soto

The big jump principle is a well established mathematical result for sums of independent and identically distributed random variables extracted from a fat tailed distribution. It states that the tail of the distribution of the sum is the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-07-10 Alessandro Vezzani , Eli Barkai , Raffaella Burioni

We introduce a method of rigorous analysis of the location and type of complex singularities for nonlinear higher order PDEs as a function of the initial data. The method is applied to determine rigorously the asymptotic structure of…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2007-05-23 O. Costin , S. Tanveer