Related papers: Singularity analysis for heavy-tailed random varia…

Different questions related with analysis of extreme values and outliers arise frequently in practice. To exclude extremal observations and outliers is not a good decision because they contain important information about the observed…

A random variable $\xi$ has a {\it light-tailed} distribution (for short: is light-tailed) if it possesses a finite exponential moment, $\E \exp (\lambda \xi) <\infty$ for some $\lambda >0$, and has a {\it heavy-tailed} distribution (is…

The article is devoted to the development of algorithmic methods ensuring efficient complexity bounds for strongly convex-concave saddle point problems in the case when one of the groups of variables is high-dimensional, and the other is…

Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are…

We study the saddle-points of the $p$-spin model -- the best understood example of a `complex' (rugged) landscape -- when its $N$ variables are complex. These points are the solutions to a system of $N$ random equations of degree $p-1$. We…

Large deviation theory and instanton calculus for stochastic systems are widely used to gain insight into the evolution and probability of rare events. At its core lies the realization that rare events are, under the right circumstances,…

In this paper, we propose a novel frequency-severity joint trip-level risk index that combines the frequency of abnormal driving patterns with a severity component reflecting how extreme such behavior is relative to a portfolio-level…

Let $\{X_i\}_{i\geq1}$ be an i.i.d. sequence of random variables and define, for $n\geq2$, \[T_n=\cases{n^{-1/2}\hat{\sigma}_n^{-1}S_n,\quad \hat{\sigma}_n>0,\cr 0,\quad \hat{\sigma}_n=0,}with S_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i,…

This paper develops robust inference methods for predictive regressions that address key challenges posed by endogenously persistent or heavy-tailed regressors, as well as persistent volatility in errors. Building on the Cauchy estimation…

We address a parametric joint detection-estimation problem for discrete signals of the form $x(t) = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \alpha_n e^{-i \lambda_n t } + \epsilon_t$, $t \in \mathbb{N}$, with an additive noise represented by independent centered…

The large deviations theory for heavy-tailed processes has seen significant advances in the recent past. In particular, Rhee et al. (2019) and Bazhba et al. (2020) established large deviation asymptotics at the sample-path level for L\'evy…

We prove large deviation results for sums of heavy-tailed random elements in rather general convex cones being semigroups equipped with a rescaling operation by positive real numbers. In difference to previous results for the cone of convex…

We consider non-convex stochastic optimization using first-order algorithms for which the gradient estimates may have heavy tails. We show that a combination of gradient clipping, momentum, and normalized gradient descent yields convergence…

We reduced the large deviation problem for a self-normalized random walk to one for an auxiliary usual bivariate random walk. This enabled us to prove the classical theorem for self-normalized walks by Q.-M. Shao (1997) under slightly more…

In this paper we consider the problem of computing tail probabilities of the distribution of a random sum of positive random variables. We assume that the individual variables follow a reproducible natural exponential family (NEF)…

We propose a class of strongly efficient rare event simulation estimators for random walks and compound Poisson processes with a regularly varying increment/jump-size distribution in a general large deviations regime. Our estimator is based…

We consider the task of heavy-tailed statistical estimation given streaming $p$-dimensional samples. This could also be viewed as stochastic optimization under heavy-tailed distributions, with an additional $O(p)$ space complexity…

This paper deals with the extreme value analysis for the triangular arrays, which appear when some parameters of the mixture model vary as the number of observations grow. When the mixing parameter is small, it is natural to associate one…

The non-asymptotic tail bounds of random variables play crucial roles in probability, statistics, and machine learning. Despite much success in developing upper bounds on tail probability in literature, the lower bounds on tail…

In this paper we perform Bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility models with heavy tail distributions using Metropolis adjusted Langevin (MALA) and Riemman manifold Langevin (MMALA) methods. We provide analytical expressions for the…