Related papers: Second Quantization Approach to Stochastic Epidemi…
This paper is devoted to the study of a stochastic epidemiological model which is a variant of the SIR model to which we add an extra factor in the transition rate from susceptible to infected accounting for the inflow of infection due to…
We investigate an epidemic model based on Bailey's continuous differential system. In the continuous time domain, we extend the classical model to time-dependent coefficients and present an alternative solution method to Gleissner's…
Compartmental models are popular in the mathematics of epidemiology for their simplicity and wide range of applications. Although they are typically solved as initial value problems for a system of ordinary differential equations, the…
This paper is a survey paper on stochastic epidemic models. A simple stochastic epidemic model is defined and exact and asymptotic model properties (relying on a large community) are presented. The purpose of modelling is illustrated by…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
We formulate a generalized susceptible exposed infectious recovered (SEIR) model on a graph, describing the population dynamics of an open crowded place with an arbitrary topology. As a sample calculation, we discuss three simple cases,…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
In order to model an epidemic, different approaches can be adopted. Mainly, the deterministic approach and the stochastic one. Recently, a large amount of literature has been published using the two approaches. The aim of this paper is to…
This contribution aims to shed light on mathematical epidemic dynamics modelling from the viewpoint of analytical mechanics. To set the stage, it recasts the basic SIR model of mathematical epidemic dynamics in an analytical mechanics…
The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are…
We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…
We present a parsimonious stochastic model for valuation of options on the fraction of infected individuals during an epidemic. The underlying stochastic dynamical system is a stochastic differential version of the SIR model of mathematical…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
In this work, some new exact and approximate analytical solutions are obtained for the SIR epidemic model, which is formulated in terms of dimensionless variables and parameters. The susceptibles population (S) is in this way explicitly…
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
The simplest epidemiologic model composed by mutually exclusive compartments SIR (susceptible-infected-susceptible) is presented to describe a reality. From health concerns to situations related with marketing, informatics or even…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…
Faced with the 2020 SARS-CoV2 epidemic, public health officials have been seeking models that could be used to predict not only the number of new cases but also the levels of hospitalisation, critical care and deaths. In this paper we…