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Related papers: An estimation procedure for the Hawkes process

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We observe $n$ inhomogeneous Poisson processes with covariates and aim at estimating their intensities. We assume that the intensity of each Poisson process is of the form $s (\cdot, x)$ where $x$ is the covariate and where $s$ is an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-14 Mathieu Sart

A new multivariate stochastic volatility estimation procedure for financial time series is proposed. A Wishart autoregressive process is considered for the volatility precision covariance matrix, for the estimation of which a two step…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-11-05 K. Triantafyllopoulos

In this paper, we present a new approach to distributed moving horizon estimation for constrained nonlinear processes. The method involves approximating the arrival costs of local estimators through a recursive framework. First, distributed…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-06-11 Xiaojie Li , Xunyuan Yin

A bivariate integer-valued autoregressive process of order 1 (BINAR(1)) with copula-joint innovations is studied. Different parameter estimation methods are analyzed and compared via Monte Carlo simulations with emphasis on estimation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-07 Andrius Buteikis , Remigijus Leipus

This paper considers a particular renewal-reward process with multivariate discounted rewards (inputs) where the arrival epochs are adjusted by adding some random delays. Then this accumulated reward can be regarded as multivariate…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-05 Landy Rabehasaina , Jae-Kyung Woo

In this paper, we study semiparametric inference for linear multivariate Hawkes processes, a class of point processes widely used to describe self and mutually exciting phenomena. We establish a convolution theorem giving the best limiting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-26 Mael Duverger , Judith Rousseau

We consider the problem of inference for non-stationary time series with heavy-tailed error distribution. Under a time-varying linear process framework we show that there exists a suitable local approximation by a stationary process with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-09 Fumiya Akashi , Konstantinos Fokianos , Junichi Hirukawa

In this paper, we establish a large deviations principle for a multivariate compound process induced by a multivariate Hawkes process with random marks. Our proof hinges on showing essential smoothness of the limiting cumulant of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-29 Raviar S. Karim , Roger J. A. Laeven , Michel R. H. Mandjes

This study examines the use of a recurrent neural network for estimating the parameters of a Hawkes model based on high-frequency financial data, and subsequently, for computing volatility. Neural networks have shown promising results in…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-25 Kyungsub Lee

We present a new method for estimating the edge of a two-dimensional bounded set, given a finite random set of points drawn from the interior. The estimator is based both on Haar series and extreme values of the point process. We give…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-03-31 Stéphane Girard , Pierre Jacob

Terrorist activities often exhibit temporal and spatial clustering, making the multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) a useful statistical model for analysing terrorism across different geographic regions. However, terror attack data from the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-27 Jason J. Lambe , Feng Chen , Tom Stindl , Tsz-Kit Jeffrey Kwan

We provide probabilistic and computational results on Markovian multivariate Hawkes processes and induced population processes. By applying the Markov property, we characterize in closed form a joint transform, bijective to the probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-08 R. S. Karim , R. J. A. Laeven , M , M. Mandjes

There is often latent network structure in spatial and temporal data and the tools of network analysis can yield fascinating insights into such data. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric method for network reconstruction from…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-11-16 Baichuan Yuan , Hao Li , Andrea L. Bertozzi , P. Jeffrey Brantingham , Mason A. Porter

Spatio-temporal Hawkes point processes are a particularly interesting class of stochastic point processes for modeling self-exciting behavior, in which the occurrence of one event increases the probability of other events occurring. These…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-19 Alba Bernabeu , Jorge Mateu

A Hawkes process model with a time-varying background rate is developed for analyzing the high-frequency financial data. In our model, the logarithm of the background rate is modeled by a linear model with a relatively large number of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-24 Takahiro Omi , Yoshito Hirata , Kazuyuki Aihara

The article is devoted to the nonparametric estimation of the quadratic covariation of non-synchronously observed It\^o processes in an additive microstructure noise model. In a high-frequency setting, we aim at establishing an asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-22 Markus Bibinger

A point process model for order flows in limit order books is proposed, in which the conditional intensity is the product of a Hawkes component and a state-dependent factor. In the LOB context, state observations may include the observed…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-06 Emmanouil Sfendourakis , Ioane Muni Toke

In this paper, we propose an extension of the Hawkes process by incorporating a kernel based on the tempered Mittag-Leffler distribution. This is the generalization of the work presented in [10]. We derive analytical results for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Neha Gupta , Aditya Maheshwari

We propose a Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Neural Hawkes Process for modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics. The proposed model extends continuous-time neural Hawkes processes by integrating spatial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-03 Christopher Chukwuemeka , Hojun You , Mikyoung Jun

Asynchronous events on the continuous time domain, e.g., social media actions and stock transactions, occur frequently in the world. The ability to recognize occurrence patterns of event sequences is crucial to predict which typeof events…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-17 Qiang Zhang , Aldo Lipani , Omer Kirnap , Emine Yilmaz