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In this article, we investigate large sample properties of model selection procedures in a general Bayesian framework when a closed form expression of the marginal likelihood function is not available or a local asymptotic quadratic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-01-10 Yun Yang , Debdeep Pati

There is a growing interest in the so-called Bayesian Predictive Inference approach, which allows to perform Bayesian inference without specifying the likelihood and prior of the model, or the need of any MCMC. Instead, only a sequence of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Marco Battiston , Lorenzo Cappello

Modern regression applications can involve hundreds or thousands of variables which motivates the use of variable selection methods. Bayesian variable selection defines a posterior distribution on the possible subsets of the variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-16 J. E. Griffin

This paper introduces a probabilistic framework to estimate parameters of an acquisition function given observed human behavior that can be modeled as a collection of sample paths from a Bayesian optimization procedure. The methodology…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2022-02-04 Nathan Sandholtz , Yohsuke Miyamoto , Luke Bornn , Maurice Smith

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-05 K. L. Mengersen , P. Pudlo , C. P. Robert

Model selection is an integral problem of model based optimization techniques such as Bayesian optimization (BO). Current approaches often treat model selection as an estimation problem, to be periodically updated with observations coming…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-02 Manisha Senadeera , Santu Rana , Sunil Gupta , Svetha Venkatesh

Bayesian methods are increasingly being applied to parameterize mechanistic process models used in environmental prediction and forecasting. In particular, models describing ecosystem dynamics with multiple states that are linear and…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-19 John W. Smith , Leah R. Johnson , Robert Q. Thomas

Stability selection is a versatile framework for structure estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional setting, primarily grounded in frequentist principles. In this paper, we propose an enhanced methodology that integrates…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Mahdi Nouraie , Connor Smith , Samuel Muller

The Bayesian approach provides powerful methods for variable selection. The ability to incorporate sparsity through prior beliefs and account for parameter uncertainty allows Bayesian variable selection to consistently identify which of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-05 Beniamino Hadj-Amar , Jack Jewson

For many taxonomic groups, online biodiversity portals used by naturalists and citizen scientists constitute the primary source of distributional information. Over the last decade, site-occupancy models have been advanced as a promising…

The multivariate sequential ordinal model is investigated for use in the Bayesian analysis of spatio-temporal ordinal data. The sequential ordinal model likelihood is equivalent to a binary model conditional on unknown regression…

In this paper, we propose a probabilistic model for computing an interpolative decomposition (ID) in which each column of the observed matrix has its own priority or importance, so that the end result of the decomposition finds a set of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Jun Lu , Joerg Osterrieder

Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple…

Applications · Statistics 2012-11-09 John Parslow , Noel Cressie , Edward P. Campbell , Emlyn Jones , Lawrence Murray

In a typical supervised machine learning setting, the predictions on all test instances are based on a common subset of features discovered during model training. However, using a different subset of features that is most informative for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Yasitha Warahena Liyanage , Daphney-Stavroula Zois , Charalampos Chelmis

In ecology we may find scenarios where the same phenomenon (species occurrence, species abundance, etc.) is observed using two different types of samplers. For instance, species data can be collected from scientific sampling with a…

Bayesian model selection procedures based on nonlocal alternative prior densities are extended to ultrahigh dimensional settings and compared to other variable selection procedures using precision-recall curves. Variable selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-19 Minsuk Shin , Anirban Bhattacharya , Valen E. Johnson

Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-06 Martin Jankowiak

Bayesian Optimization (BO) methods are useful for optimizing functions that are expen- sive to evaluate, lack an analytical expression and whose evaluations can be contaminated by noise. These methods rely on a probabilistic model of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-04 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-13 Wen-Hsi Yang , Scott H. Holan , Christopher K. Wikle

Mapping people dynamics is a crucial skill for robots, because it enables them to coexist in human-inhabited environments. However, learning a model of people dynamics is a time consuming process which requires observation of large amount…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Francesco Verdoja , Tomasz Piotr Kucner , Ville Kyrki
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