Related papers: The Modelling of Random Phenomena
We review recent work aimed at modeling species extinction over geological time. We discuss a number of models which, rather than dealing with the direct causes of particular extinction events, attempt to predict overall statistical trends,…
Human beings face threats because of unexpected happenings, which can be avoided through an adequate crisis evacuation plan, which is vital to stop wound and demise as its negative results. Consequently, different typical evacuation…
This article describes the development of an agent-based model (AMEL, Agent-based Model for Earthquake evacuation in Lebanon) that aims at simulating the movement of pedestrians shortly after an earthquake. The GAMA platform was chosen to…
We examine the applicability of modern neural network architectures to the midterm prediction of earthquakes. Our data-based classification model aims to predict if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold takes place at a given…
In all types of disasters, from earthquakes to armed conflicts, aid workers need accurate and timely data such as damage to buildings and population displacement to mount an effective response. Remote sensing provides this data at an…
This volume contains the proceedings of the Eighth Workshop on Model-Based Testing (MBT 2013), which was held on March 17, 2013 in Rome, Italy, as a satellite event of the European Joint Conferences on Theory and Practice of Software, ETAPS…
This thesis describes work on two applications of probabilistic programming: the learning of probabilistic program code given specifications, in particular program code of one-dimensional samplers; and the facilitation of sequential Monte…
Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk models are essential to improving our awareness of seismic risk, to its management, and to increasing our resilience against earthquake disasters. These models consist of a series of components, which…
In the last fifty years, researchers have developed statistical, data-driven, analytical, and algorithmic approaches for designing and improving emergency response management (ERM) systems. The problem has been noted as inherently difficult…
We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010),…
Earthquakes cannot be predicted with precision, but algorithms exist for intermediate-term middle range prediction of main shocks above a pre-assigned threshold, based on seismicity patterns. Few years ago, a first attempt was made in the…
Surface transportation systems are an essential part of urban transportation infrastructure and are susceptible to damage from earthquakes. This damage, along with the lack of prior warning of earthquake events, may lead to severe and…
A recently proposed method of constructing seismic networks from 'record breaking events' from the earthquake catalog of California (Phy. Rev. E, 77 6,066104, 2008) was successfull in establishing causal features to seismicity and arrive at…
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…
This paper analyzes the dynamics of higher education dropouts through an innovative approach that integrates recurrent events modeling and point process theory with functional data analysis. We propose a novel methodology that extends…
Random population dynamics with catastrophes (events pertaining to possible elimination of a large portion of the population) has a long history in the mathematical literature. In this paper we study an ergodic model for random population…
These lecture notes are intended to cover some introductory topics in stochastic simulation for scientific computing courses offered by the IT department at Uppsala University, as taught by the author. Basic concepts in probability theory…
This article is devoted to methods of construction and study of stochastic models based on Monte Carlo method. A model of Brownian motion, the construction and processing which brings to a world of random numbers and mathematical…
One of the most important tasks of urban and hazard planning is to mitigate the damages and minimize the costs of the recovery process after catastrophic events. The rapidity and the efficiency of the recovery process are commonly referred…
Interactions and time shape many aspects of life. Everyday activities -- like conversations, emails, money transfers, citations, and even acts of violence -- are relational events: interactions between a sender and a receiver at a specific…