Related papers: The Modelling of Random Phenomena
Extreme shock models have been introduced in Gut and H\"usler (1999) to study systems that at random times are subject to shock of random magnitude. These systems break down when some shock overcomes a given resistance level. In this paper…
We consider the problem of model building for rare events prediction in longitudinal follow-up studies. In this paper, we compare several resampling methods to improve standard regression models on a real life example. We evaluate the…
Near real-time damage diagnosis of building structures after extreme events (e.g., earthquakes) is of great importance in structural health monitoring. Unlike conventional methods that are usually time-consuming and require human expertise,…
Earthquakes are among the most immediate and deadly natural disasters that humans face. Accurately forecasting the extent of earthquake damage and assessing potential risks can be instrumental in saving numerous lives. In this study, we…
We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…
In recent years, the monitoring and study of natural hazards have gained significant attention, particularly due to climate change, which exacerbates incidents like floods, droughts, storm surges, and landslides. Together with the constant…
This extensive review was written for the ``Encyclopedia of Complexity and System Science'' (Springer, 2008) and addresses a broad audience ranging from engineers to applied mathematicians, computer scientists and physicists. It provides an…
Extreme events have low occurrence probabilities and display pronounced deviation from their average behaviour, such as earthquakes or power blackouts. Such extreme events occurring on the nodes of a complex network have been extensively…
The analysis of extremes in climate models is hindered by the lack of statistics due to the computational costs required to run simulations long enough to sample rare events. We demonstrate how rare event algorithms can improve the…
This work introduces and compares approaches for estimating rare-event probabilities related to the number of edges in the random geometric graph on a Poisson point process. In the one-dimensional setting, we derive closed-form expressions…
The information model of the collapse phenomena is further advanced. We discover an important property of the model - the death point effect. The P function approach is presented to construct the manifest form of the function of risk. We…
Our paper computationally explores the extinction dynamics of an animal species effected by a sudden spike in mortality due to an extreme event. In our study, the animal species has a 2-year life cycle and is endowed with a high survival…
These are lecture notes of a course that I gave to people doing research for their Ph.D. thesis in theoretical chemistry or spectroscopy. The course was given on December 9-13, 2002, in Han-sur-Lesse, Belgium. The lecture notes start with…
This paper focuses on the study of a practical management problem faced by a healthcare {\it emergency department} (ED) located in the north of Italy. The objective of our study was to propose organisational changes in the selected ED,…
Modeling the subgrid-scale dynamics of reduced models is a long standing open problem that finds application in ocean, atmosphere and climate predictions where direct numerical simulation (DNS) is impossible. While neural networks (NNs)…
Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the…
We investigate the relationship between the cumulative number of earthquakes and ground uplift at the Campi Flegrei caldera (South Italy) during the ongoing unrest (2005-present). While previous studies have explored this correlation, we…
Background properties in experimental particle physics are typically estimated using control samples corresponding to large numbers of events. This can provide precise knowledge of average background distributions, but typically does not…
The literature shows outstanding capabilities for CNNs in event recognition in images. However, fewer attempts are made to analyze the potential causes behind the decisions of the models and exploring whether the predictions are based on…
While a social event, such as a concert or a food festival, is a common experience to people, a natural disaster is experienced by a fewer individuals. The ordinary and common ground experience of social events could be therefore used to…