Related papers: The Modelling of Random Phenomena
This article is a commentary on the verdict of the "L'Aquila Six", the group of bureaucrats and scientists tried by an Italian court as a result of their public statements in advance of the quake of 2009 Apr. 6 that left the city in ruins…
Since long back, scientists have been putting enormous effort to understand earthquake dynamics -the goal is to develop a successful prediction scheme which can provide reliable alarm that an earthquake is imminent. Model studies sometimes…
The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…
After the earthquake occurred in Molise (Central Italy) on 31st October 2002 (Ml 5.4, 29 people dead), the local Servizio Regionale per la Protezione Civile to ensure a better analysis of local seismic data, through a convention with the…
This article focuses, in the context of epidemic models, on rare events that may possibly correspond to crisis situations from the perspective of Public Health. In general, no close analytic form for their occurrence probabilities is…
Around the mid 1990s, the authors set up a broad-based research program with the aim of better understanding the evolution of Italian climate in the last 100/150 years. The program was developed both within European (UE IMPROVE and ALPCLIM…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
On 1 August 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of the CSEP-Italy experiment is to test earthquake…
In 2021 300 mm of rain, nearly half the average annual rainfall, fell near Catania (Sicily island, Italy). Such events took place in just a few hours, with dramatic consequences on the environmental, social, economic, and health systems of…
This paper proposes a public-private insurance scheme for earthquakes and floods in Italy in which property-owners, the insurer and the government co-operate in risk financing. Our model departs from the existing literature by describing a…
In recent years, considerable attention has been paid to research and development methods able to assess the seismic energy propagation on the territory. The seismic energy propagation is strongly related to the complexity of the source and…
Catastrophes of all kinds can be roughly defined as short duration-large amplitude events following and followed by long periods of "ripening". Major earthquakes surely belong to the class of 'catastrophic' events. Because of the space-time…
Accurate damage prediction is crucial for disaster preparedness and response strategies, particularly given the frequent earthquakes in Turkey. Utilizing datasets on earthquake data, infrastructural quality metrics, and contemporary…
Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…
In real-world scenario, many phenomena produce a collection of events that occur in continuous time. Point Processes provide a natural mathematical framework for modeling these sequences of events. In this survey, we investigate…
This paper is based on a course given by the author at the University of Rome ``La Sapienza'' in the Academic year 2000/2001. The intended aim of the course was to rapidly introduce, although not in an exhaustive way, the non-expert PhD…
This review article provides an overview of recent work in the modeling and analysis of recurrent events arising in engineering, reliability, public health, biomedicine and other areas. Recurrent event modeling possesses unique facets…
Extreme events, such as rogue waves, earthquakes and stock market crashes, occur spontaneously in many dynamical systems. Because of their usually adverse consequences, quantification, prediction and mitigation of extreme events are highly…
This text surveys different probabilistic aspects of a model which is used to describe the evolution of an object that falls apart randomly as time passes. Each point of view yields useful techniques to establish properties of such random…
A sequence of earthquakes occurred between the end of August 2016 and the end of October 2016 in Central Italy causing significant damage and major disruption in a wide area. The sequence of events is composed of five events with magnitude…