Related papers: A State-Space Estimation of the Lee-Carter Mortali…
In this paper we consider pricing of insurance contracts for breast cancer risk based on three multiple state models. Using population data in England and data from the medical literature, we calibrate a collection of semi-Markov and Markov…
Electronic health records (EHR) are characterized as non-stationary, heterogeneous, noisy, and sparse data; therefore, it is challenging to learn the regularities or patterns inherent within them. In particular, sparseness caused mostly by…
This paper proposes a novel low-rank approximation to the multivariate State-Space Model. The Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approach is applied component-wise to the independent-in-time Mat\'ern Gaussian innovation term in…
Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…
This article describes a method to estimate the mortality rate ratio R from current status data with duration in a chronic condition in case the general mortality of the overall population is known. Apart from the general mortality, the…
Producing subnational estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) is a vital goal for the United Nations to reduce inequalities in mortality and well-being across the globe. There is a great disparity in U5MR between high-income and…
State-space models effectively model multivariate time series by updating over time a representation of the system state from which predictions are made. The state representation is usually a vector without any explicit structure.…
Modeling taxation of Variable Annuities has been frequently neglected but accounting for it can significantly improve the explanation of the withdrawal dynamics and lead to a better modeling of the financial cost of these insurance…
Small-area mortality estimation is inherently difficult, as random fluctuations from low death counts can obscure real geographic differences. We introduce a flexible model that borrows strength across age, space, and time to estimate…
In this paper, we investigate a complex variation of the standard joint life annuity policy by introducing three distinct contingent benefits for the surviving member(s) of a couple, along with a contingent benefit for their beneficiaries…
This paper presents and derives the interrelations between survival analysis and master equation. Survival analysis deals with modeling the transitions between succeeding states of a system in terms of hazard rates. Questions related with…
Insurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a…
The missing data problem pervasively exists in statistical applications. Even as simple as the count data in mortality projections, it may not be available for certain age-and-year groups due to the budget limitations or difficulties in…
We developed two new alternatives to signature-based, spatial autoregressive models. In a simulation study, we found that the new models performed at least as well as existing approaches but presented shorter computation times. We then used…
The aim of this paper is to present a simple stochastic model that accounts for the effects of a long-memory in volatility on option pricing. The starting point is the stochastic Black-Scholes equation involving volatility with long-range…
This paper examines several computer algorithms designed to assess mortality and longevity risk.
Statistical prediction plays an important role in many decision processes such as university budgeting (depending on the number of students who will enroll), capital budgeting (depending on the remaining lifetime of a fleet of systems), the…
Indirect standardization is widely used in disease mapping to control for confounding, but relies on restrictive assumptions that may bias estimates if violated. Using data on suicide-related emergency calls, this study highlights such…
Predictive Maintenance (PdM) is pivotal in Industry 4.0 and 5.0, proactively enhancing efficiency through accurate equipment Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction, thus optimizing maintenance scheduling and reducing unexpected failures and…
Smoking is one of the main risk factors that has affected human mortality and life expectancy over the past century. Smoking accounts for a large part of the nonlinearities in the growth of life expectancy and of the geographic and sex…