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This paper concerns the assessment of direct causal effects from a combination of: (i) non-experimental data, and (ii) qualitative domain knowledge. Domain knowledge is encoded in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG), in which all…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Carlos Brito , Judea Pearl

We introduce a novel class of labeled directed acyclic graph (LDAG) models for finite sets of discrete variables. LDAGs generalize earlier proposals for allowing local structures in the conditional probability distribution of a node, such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-12 Johan Pensar , Henrik Nyman , Timo Koski , Jukka Corander

Bayesian networks are a widely-used class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing symmetric conditional independence between variables of interest using the topology of the underlying graph. For categorical variables, they…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-07 Gherardo Varando , Federico Carli , Manuele Leonelli

Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models widely employed to understand dependencies in high dimensional data, and even to facilitate causal discovery. Learning the underlying network structure, which is encoded as a directed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-03 Jack Kuipers , Polina Suter , Giusi Moffa

Log-linear models are a classical tool for the analysis of contingency tables. In particular, the subclass of graphical log-linear models provides a general framework for modelling conditional independences. However, with the exception of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-03-04 Mathias Drton , Thomas S. Richardson

Causal structure learning from observational data remains a non-trivial task due to various factors such as finite sampling, unobserved confounding factors, and measurement errors. Constraint-based and score-based methods tend to suffer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-09 Rezaur Rashid , Jawad Chowdhury , Gabriel Terejanu

Real causal processes may contain feedback loops and change over time. In this paper, we model cycles and non-stationary distributions using a mixture of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). We then study the conditional independence (CI)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-16 Eric V. Strobl

We establish finite-sample guarantees for a polynomial-time algorithm for learning a nonlinear, nonparametric directed acyclic graphical (DAG) model from data. The analysis is model-free and does not assume linearity, additivity,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-12 Ming Gao , Yi Ding , Bryon Aragam

Conditional independence models associated with directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) may be characterized in at least three different ways: via a factorization, the global Markov property (given by the d-separation criterion), and the local…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-27 Thomas S. Richardson , Robin J. Evans , James M. Robins , Ilya Shpitser

In this article, we propose a new hypothesis testing method for directed acyclic graph (DAG). While there is a rich class of DAG estimation methods, there is a relative paucity of DAG inference solutions. Moreover, the existing methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-25 Chengchun Shi , Yunzhe Zhou , Lexin Li

We introduce priors and algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in Gaussian models defined by acyclic directed mixed graphs. Such a class of graphs, composed of directed and bi-directed edges, is a representation of conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-02 Ricardo Silva , Zoubin Ghahramani

This article surveys the variety of ways in which a directed acyclic graph (DAG) can be used to represent a problem of probabilistic causality. For each of these we describe the relevant formal or informal semantics governing that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-16 Philip Dawid

Causal discovery aims to infer causal relationships among variables from observational data, typically represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Most existing methods assume independent and identically distributed observations, an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

In many application areas---lending, education, and online recommenders, for example---fairness and equity concerns emerge when a machine learning system interacts with a dynamically changing environment to produce both immediate and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-07 Elliot Creager , David Madras , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

Graphical causal models are an important tool for knowledge discovery because they can represent both the causal relations between variables and the multivariate probability distributions over the data. Once learned, causal graphs can be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-04-11 Andrew J Sedgewick , Joseph D. Ramsey , Peter Spirtes , Clark Glymour , Panayiotis V. Benos

We consider a binary response which is potentially affected by a set of continuous variables. Of special interest is the causal effect on the response due to an intervention on a specific variable. The latter can be meaningfully determined…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-11 Federico Castelletti , Guido Consonni

Bayesian causal discovery offers the power to quantify epistemic uncertainties among a broad range of structurally diverse causal theories potentially explaining the data, represented in forms of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-30 Nu Hoang , Bao Duong , Thin Nguyen

Directed acyclic graph models with hidden variables have been much studied, particularly in view of their computational efficiency and connection with causal methods. In this paper we provide the circumstances under which it is possible for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-15 Robin J. Evans

The feed-forward relationship naturally observed in time-dependent processes and in a diverse number of real systems -such as some food-webs and electronic and neural wiring- can be described in terms of so-called directed acyclic graphs…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-05-19 Joaquín Goñi , Bernat Corominas-Murtra , Ricard V. Solé , Carlos Rodríguez-Caso

Structural learning of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) or Bayesian networks has been studied extensively under the assumption that data are independent. We propose a new Gaussian DAG model for dependent data which assumes the observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-30 Hangjian Li , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Qing Zhou