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We introduce a comprehensive Bayesian multivariate predictive inference framework. The basis for our framework is a hierarchical Bayesian model, that is a mixture of finite Polya trees corresponding to multiple dyadic partitions of the unit…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-27 Daniel Yekutieli

Bayesian methods are critical for quantifying the behaviors of systems. They capture our uncertainty about a system's behavior using probability distributions and update this understanding as new information becomes available. Probabilistic…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-25 Thomas A. Catanach , James L. Beck

We propose a method to approximate the distribution of robot configurations satisfying multiple objectives. Our approach uses variational inference, a popular method in Bayesian computation, which has several advantages over sampling-based…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-11-25 Emmanuel Pignat , Teguh Lembono , Sylvain Calinon

We consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval. As a prior on the diffusion coefficient, we employ a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-22 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer , Peter Spreij

The Bayesian approach to machine learning amounts to computing posterior distributions of random variables from a probabilistic model of how the variables are related (that is, a prior distribution) and a set of observations of variables.…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2015-07-01 Johannes Borgström , Andrew D Gordon , Michael Greenberg , James Margetson , Jurgen Van Gael

Missing values in covariates due to censoring by signal interference or lack of sensitivity in the measuring devices are common in industrial problems. We propose a full Bayesian solution to the prediction problem with an efficient Markov…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-21 Caroline Svahn , Mattias Villani

We study the problem of estimating the mean of a multivariatedistribution based on independent samples. The main result is the proof of existence of an estimator with a non-asymptotic sub-Gaussian performance for all distributions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-20 Emilien Joly , Gábor Lugosi , Roberto I. Oliveira

In many practices, scientists are particularly interested in detecting which of the predictors are truly associated with a multivariate response. It is more accurate to model multiple responses as one vector rather than separating each…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-16 Xiaotian Dai , Guifang Fu , Randall Reese , Shaofei Zhao , Zuofeng Shang

In this paper we develop a Bayesian procedure for estimating multivariate stochastic volatility (MSV) using state space models. A multiplicative model based on inverted Wishart and multivariate singular beta distributions is proposed for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Kostas Triantafyllopoulos , Giovanni Montana

Benchmarking estimation and its risk evaluation is a practically important issue in small area estimation. While Bayesian methods have been widely adopted in small area estimation, existing benchmarking approaches are often ad-hoc, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-22 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Genya Kobayashi , Yuki Kawakubo

A general methodology is introduced for the construction and effective application of control variates to estimation problems involving data from reversible MCMC samplers. We propose the use of a specific class of functions as control…

Computation · Statistics 2010-08-10 Petros Dellaportas , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis. This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing well when the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-03-26 Rajarshi Guhaniyogi , David B. Dunson

In recent years, methods for Bayesian inference have been widely used in many different problems in physics where detection and characterization are necessary. Data analysis in gravitational-wave astronomy is a prime example of such a case.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-10-11 Nikolaos Karnesis , Michael L. Katz , Natalia Korsakova , Jonathan R. Gair , Nikolaos Stergioulas

We consider nonparametric estimation of a mixed discrete-continuous distribution under anisotropic smoothness conditions and possibly increasing number of support points for the discrete part of the distribution. For these settings, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-21 Andriy Norets , Justinas Pelenis

Estimating copulas with discrete marginal distributions is challenging, especially in high dimensions, because computing the likelihood contribution of each observation requires evaluating $2^{J}$ terms, with $J$ the number of discrete…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-12 D. Gunawan , M. -N. Tran , K. Suzuki , J. Dick , R. Kohn

We propose the Bayesian bridge estimator for regularized regression and classification. Two key mixture representations for the Bayesian bridge model are developed: (1) a scale mixture of normals with respect to an alpha-stable random…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-30 Nicholas G. Polson , James G. Scott , Jesse Windle

In this paper, we study efficient approximate sampling for probability distributions known up to normalization constants. We specifically focus on a problem class arising in Bayesian inference for large-scale inverse problems in science and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Yifan Chen , Daniel Zhengyu Huang , Jiaoyang Huang , Sebastian Reich , Andrew M. Stuart

Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-11 Maxim Rabinovich , Elaine Angelino , Michael I. Jordan

A Bayesian approach to the classification problem is proposed in which random partitions play a central role. It is argued that the partitioning approach has the capacity to take advantage of a variety of large-scale spatial structures, if…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Marc A. Coram

Variational Bayesian Inference is a popular methodology for approximating posterior distributions over Bayesian neural network weights. Recent work developing this class of methods has explored ever richer parameterizations of the…