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This paper presents a novel approach to stochastic mortality modelling by using the Conway--Maxwell--Poisson (CMP) distribution to model death counts. Unlike standard Poisson or negative binomial distributions, the CMP is a more adaptable…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-06 Jackie Siaw Tze Wong , Emiliano A. Valdez

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

In this paper we consider the parameter estimation problem associated to partially-observed time changed SDEs, with observations that are given at discrete times. In particular we consider both likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We develop…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Ke Zhao , Ajay Jasra

A new algorithm based on bayesian inference for learning local graph conductance based on Gaussian Process(GP) is given that uses advanced MCMC convergence ideas to create a scalable and fast algorithm for convergence to stationary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-28 Farshad Noravesh

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used to estimate features of interest of a distribution. The Monte Carlo error in estimation has an asymptotic normal distribution whose multivariate nature has so far been ignored in the MCMC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-05 Dootika Vats , James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models offer a rich framework for model based clustering. We consider the situation where the kernel of the mixture is available only up to an intractable normalizing constant. In this case, most of the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-21 Mario Beraha , Riccardo Corradin

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a useful class of methods for Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is computationally intractable. In practice, the basic ABC algorithm may be inefficient in the presence of discrepancy…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-14 Stefano Cabras , Maria Eugenia Castellanos Nueda , Erlis Ruli

The sub-Gaussian stable distribution is a heavy-tailed elliptically contoured law which has interesting applications in signal processing and financial mathematics. This work addresses the problem of feasible estimation of distributions. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-04 Taras Bodnar , Dmitry Otryakhin , Erik Thorsen

We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-07 Joel Janek Dabrowski , Daniel Edward Pagendam

Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis is a formal approach to coherently synthesizing multiple predictive distributions into a single distribution. In sequential analysis, the computation of the synthesized predictive distribution has…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-31 Riku Masuda , Kaoru Irie

Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-27 Patrick Conrad , Andrew Davis , Youssef Marzouk , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith

We study frequentist risk properties of predictive density estimators for mean mixtures of multivariate normal distributions, involving an unknown location parameter $\theta \in \mathbb{R}^d$, and which include multivariate skew normal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-02 Pankaj Bhagwat , Eric Marchand

This paper considers a multivariate spatial random field, with each component having univariate marginal distributions of the skew-Gaussian type. We assume that the field is defined spatially on the unit sphere embedded in $\mathbb{R}^3$,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-05 Alfredo Alegría , Sandra Caro , Moreno Bevilacqua , Emilio Porcu , Jorge Clarke

We study Bayesian inversion for a model elliptic PDE with unknown diffusion coefficient. We provide complexity analyses of several Markov Chain-Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the efficient numerical evaluation of expectations under the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2013-05-01 Viet Ha Hoang , Christoph Schwab , Andrew M. Stuart

Autoencoders gained popularity in the deep learning revolution given their ability to compress data and provide dimensionality reduction. Although prominent deep learning methods have been used to enhance autoencoders, the need to provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-29 Rohitash Chandra , Mahir Jain , Manavendra Maharana , Pavel N. Krivitsky

We present a continuation method that entails generating a sequence of transition probability density functions from the prior to the posterior in the context of Bayesian inference for parameter estimation problems. The characterization of…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-27 Ben Mansour Dia

We introduce a Bayesian approach for multivariate spatio-temporal prediction for high-dimensional count-valued data. Our primary interest is when there are possibly millions of data points referenced over different variables, geographic…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-24 Jonathan R. Bradley , Scott H. Holan , Christopher K. Wikle

The tail of a bivariate distribution function in the domain of attraction of a bivariate extreme-value distribution may be approximated by the one of its extreme-value attractor. The extreme-value attractor has margins that belong to a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-14 Simon Guillotte , Francois Perron , Johan Segers

The formulation of Bayesian inverse problems involves choosing prior distributions; choices that seem equally reasonable may lead to significantly different conclusions. We develop a computational approach to better understand the impact of…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-08 John E. Darges , Alen Alexanderian , Pierre A. Gremaud

We propose a novel framework for joint magnetic resonance image reconstruction and uncertainty quantification using under-sampled k-space measurements. The problem is formulated as a Bayesian linear inverse problem, where prior…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-17 Ahmed Karam Eldaly , Matteo Figini , Daniel C. Alexander