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This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient multivariate volatility model, which allows for dynamic conditional correlations and volatility spillover effects among financial assets. The new model has desirable properties…
We develop a novel class of MCMC algorithms based on a stochastized Nesterov scheme. With an appropriate addition of noise, the result is a time-inhomogeneous underdamped Langevin equation, which we prove emits a specified target…
In this paper we derive tractable formulae for price sensitivities of two-dimensional spread options using Malliavin calculus. In particular, we consider spread options with asset dynamics driven by geometric Brownian motion and stochastic…
We discuss the issue of estimating large-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models with stochastic volatility in real-time situations where data are sampled at different frequencies. In the case of a large VAR with stochastic volatility, the…
This paper introduces a robust and computationally efficient estimation framework for high-dimensional volatility models in the BEKK-ARCH class. The proposed approach employs data truncation to ensure robustness against heavy-tailed…
Monte Carlo sampling for Bayesian posterior inference is a common approach used in machine learning. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedures that are used are often discrete-time analogues of associated stochastic differential equations…
We propose a new algorithm---Stochastic Proximal Langevin Algorithm (SPLA)---for sampling from a log concave distribution. Our method is a generalization of the Langevin algorithm to potentials expressed as the sum of one stochastic smooth…
Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) is a computationally efficient sampler for Bayesian posterior inference given a large scale dataset. Although SGLD is designed for unbounded random variables, many practical models incorporate…
We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions…
The paper presents a Bayesian framework for the calibration of financial models using neural stochastic differential equations (neural SDEs), for which we also formulate a global universal approximation theorem based on Barron-type…
We present an unbiased method for Bayesian posterior means based on kinetic Langevin dynamics that combines advanced splitting methods with enhanced gradient approximations. Our approach avoids Metropolis correction by coupling Markov…
We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…
We introduce a novel and scalable Bayesian framework for multivariate-density-density regression (DDR), designed to model relationships between multivariate distributions. Our approach addresses the critical issue of distributions residing…
We consider state and parameter estimation for a dynamical system having both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. It has been shown that the robustness of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating time-invariant…
Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting…
Most of previous works and applications of Bayesian factor model have assumed the normal likelihood regardless of its validity. We propose a Bayesian factor model for heavy-tailed high-dimensional data based on multivariate Student-$t$…
We propose a novel model agnostic data-driven reliability analysis framework for time-dependent reliability analysis. The proposed approach -- referred to as MAntRA -- combines interpretable machine learning, Bayesian statistics, and…
Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are popular samplers for approximate inference, but they are generally biased. We show that many recent versions of these methods (e.g. Chen et al. (2014)) cannot be corrected using…
We address the problem of simulating efficiently from the posterior distribution over the parameters of a particular class of nonlinear regression models using a Langevin-Metropolis sampler. It is shown that as the number N of parameters…
The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is…