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Numerous approaches are proposed in the literature for non-stationarity marginal extreme value inference, including different model parameterisations with respect to covariate, and different inference schemes. The objective of this article…

In this paper, we provide a multiscale perspective on the problem of maximum marginal likelihood estimation. We consider and analyse a diffusion-based maximum marginal likelihood estimation scheme using ideas from multiscale dynamics. Our…

We introduce a novel regression model for the conditional left and right tail of a possibly heavy-tailed response. The proposed model can be used to learn the effect of covariates on an extreme value setting via a Lasso-type specification…

Stochastic processes are a flexible and widely used family of models for statistical modeling. While stochastic processes offer attractive properties such as inclusion of uncertainty properties, their inference is typically intractable,…

Stochastic volatility (SV) models are nonlinear state-space models that enjoy increasing popularity for fitting and predicting heteroskedastic time series. However, due to the large number of latent quantities, their efficient estimation is…

We present a two-stage Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for sampling probabilistic models, whose log-likelihood is computationally expensive to evaluate, by using a surrogate Gaussian Process (GP) model. The key feature of the approach, and…

In this paper we consider the behavior of Kalman Filter state estimates in the case of distribution with heavy tails .The simulated linear state space models with Gaussian measurement noises were used. Gaussian noises in state equation are…

We consider a stochastic volatility model with jumps where the underlying asset price is driven by the process sum of a 2-dimensional Brownian motion and a 2-dimensional compensated Poisson process. The market is incomplete, resulting in…

In this paper, we describe an explicit extension formula in sensitivity analysis regarding the Malliavin weight for jump-diffusion mean-field stochastic differential equations whose local Lipschitz drift coefficients are influenced by the…

Estimating hidden processes from non-linear noisy observations is particularly difficult when the parameters of these processes are not known. This paper adopts a machine learning approach to devise variational Bayesian inference for such…

This paper focuses on modelling loss reserving to pay outstanding claims. As the amount liable on any given claim is not known until settlement, we propose a flexible model via heavy-tailed and skewed distributions to deal with outstanding…

In this paper, we study the numerical discretization of stochastic differential equations with locally Lipschitz, super-linearly growing drift, and the resulting implications for sampling from non-log-concave distributions satisfying a…

We present a novel methodology based on filtered data and moving averages for estimating effective dynamics from observations of multiscale systems. We show in a semi-parametric framework of the Langevin type that our approach is…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling methods provide a mechanism for defining distant proposals with high acceptance probabilities in a Metropolis-Hastings framework, enabling more efficient exploration of the state space than standard…

The article is devoted to models of financial markets with stochastic volatility, which is defined by a functional of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process or Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process. We study the question of exact price of European option. The…

This paper presents the Fourier-Malliavin Volatility (FMVol) estimation library for MATLAB. This library includes functions that implement Fourier- Malliavin estimators (see Malliavin and Mancino (2002, 2009)) of the volatility and…

We consider the problem of sampling from a distribution governed by a potential function. This work proposes an explicit score based MCMC method that is deterministic, resulting in a deterministic evolution for particles rather than a…

A non-Bayesian, regression-based or generalized least squares (GLS)-based approach is formally proposed to estimate a class of time-varying AR parameter models. This approach has partly been used by Ito et al. (2014, 2016a,b), and is proven…

Sampling from a target distribution is a fundamental problem. Traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, such as the unadjusted Langevin algorithm (ULA), derived from the overdamped Langevin dynamics, have been extensively…

We propose an algorithm for the efficient and robust sampling of the posterior probability distribution in Bayesian inference problems. The algorithm combines the local search capabilities of the Manifold Metropolis Adjusted Langevin…