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Bayesian hierarchical linear models provide a natural framework to analyze nested and clustered data. Classical estimation with Markov chain Monte Carlo produces well calibrated posterior distributions but becomes computationally expensive…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Cristian Parra-Aldana , Juan Sosa

Parameter estimates for associated genetic variants, report ed in the initial discovery samples, are often grossly inflated compared to the values observed in the follow-up replication samples. This type of bias is a consequence of the…

Applications · Statistics 2011-04-15 Lizhen Xu , Radu V. Craiu , Lei Sun

Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-29 Yuling Yao , Gregor Pirš , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

The mean field variational Bayes method is becoming increasingly popular in statistics and machine learning. Its iterative Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference algorithm has been widely applied to large scale Bayesian inference. See Blei…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-12-12 Anderson Y. Zhang , Harrison H. Zhou

Ordinary stochastic neural networks mostly rely on the expected values of their weights to make predictions, whereas the induced noise is mostly used to capture the uncertainty, prevent overfitting and slightly boost the performance through…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-19 Kirill Neklyudov , Dmitry Molchanov , Arsenii Ashukha , Dmitry Vetrov

Constant step-size Stochastic Gradient Descent exhibits two phases: a transient phase during which iterates make fast progress towards the optimum, followed by a stationary phase during which iterates oscillate around the optimal point. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-02 Scott Pesme , Aymeric Dieuleveut , Nicolas Flammarion

When dealing with datasets containing a billion instances or with simulations that require a supercomputer to execute, computational resources become part of the equation. We can improve the efficiency of learning and inference by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-03-06 Max Welling

Surprise-based learning allows agents to rapidly adapt to non-stationary stochastic environments characterized by sudden changes. We show that exact Bayesian inference in a hierarchical model gives rise to a surprise-modulated trade-off…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-25 Vasiliki Liakoni , Alireza Modirshanechi , Wulfram Gerstner , Johanni Brea

Deep neural networks have achieved impressive results on a wide variety of tasks. However, quantifying uncertainty in the network's output is a challenging task. Bayesian models offer a mathematical framework to reason about model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-28 Manikanta Srikar Yellapragada , Chandra Prakash Konkimalla

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on a low-rank factorization is commonly employed to speed up matrix problems including matrix completion, subspace tracking, and SDP relaxation. In this paper, we exhibit a step size scheme for SGD on a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-02-11 Christopher De Sa , Kunle Olukotun , Christopher Ré

Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-13 Richard J. Boys , Holly F. Ainsworth , Colin S. Gillespie

Natural gradients can improve convergence in stochastic variational inference significantly but inverting the Fisher information matrix is daunting in high dimensions. Moreover, in Gaussian variational approximation, natural gradient…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-05 Linda S. L. Tan

We consider a broad class of continuous-time two-type population size-dependent Markov Branching Processes. The offspring distribution can depend on the current (alive) and total (dead and alive) populations. Using stochastic approximation…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-04 Khushboo Agarwal , Veeraruna Kavitha

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a popular method for approximate inference in generative models with intractable but easy-to-sample likelihood. It constructs an approximate posterior distribution by finding parameters for which…

Computation · Statistics 2020-03-09 Kimia Nadjahi , Valentin De Bortoli , Alain Durmus , Roland Badeau , Umut Şimşekli

Modern statistical inference tasks often require iterative optimization methods to compute the solution. Convergence analysis from an optimization viewpoint only informs us how well the solution is approximated numerically but overlooks the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-27 Tengyuan Liang , Weijie Su

Gradient-based Monte Carlo sampling algorithms, like Langevin dynamics and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, are important methods for Bayesian inference. In large-scale settings, full-gradients are not affordable and thus stochastic gradients…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-25 Zhize Li , Tianyi Zhang , Shuyu Cheng , Jun Zhu , Jian Li

We present and study a novel algorithm for the computation of 2-Wasserstein population barycenters of absolutely continuous probability measures on Euclidean space. The proposed method can be seen as a stochastic gradient descent procedure…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-24 Julio Backhoff-Veraguas , Joaquin Fontbona , Gonzalo Rios , Felipe Tobar

For many machine learning problems, data is abundant and it may be prohibitive to make multiple passes through the full training set. In this context, we investigate strategies for dynamically increasing the effective sample size, when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-10-10 Hadi Daneshmand , Aurelien Lucchi , Thomas Hofmann

Stochastic gradient descent is the method of choice for large scale optimization of machine learning objective functions. Yet, its performance is greatly variable and heavily depends on the choice of the stepsizes. This has motivated a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-28 Xiaoyu Li , Francesco Orabona

Convolutional neural networks are widely used in imaging and image recognition. Learning such networks from training data leads to the minimization of a non-convex function. This makes the analysis of standard optimization methods such as…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Jona-Maria Diederen , Holger Rauhut , Ulrich Terstiege