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We empirically show that Bayesian inference can be inconsistent under misspecification in simple linear regression problems, both in a model averaging/selection and in a Bayesian ridge regression setting. We use the standard linear model,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-30 Peter Grünwald , Thijs van Ommen

Variational inference, such as the mean-field (MF) approximation, requires certain conjugacy structures for efficient computation. These can impose unnecessary restrictions on the viable prior distribution family and further constraints on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-11 Rentian Yao , Yun Yang

Approximate Bayesian computation performs approximate inference for models where likelihood computations are expensive or impossible. Instead simulations from the model are performed for various parameter values and accepted if they are…

Computation · Statistics 2015-12-16 Dennis Prangle

Stochastic gradient algorithm is a key ingredient of many machine learning methods, particularly appropriate for large-scale learning.However, a major caveat of large data is their incompleteness.We propose an averaged stochastic gradient…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-09 Julie Josse , Aude Sportisse , Claire Boyer , Aymeric Dieuleveut

We generalize the stochastic block model to the important case in which edges are annotated with weights drawn from an exponential family distribution. This generalization introduces several technical difficulties for model estimation,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-05-27 Christopher Aicher , Abigail Z. Jacobs , Aaron Clauset

Stochastic approximation algorithm is a useful technique which has been exploited successfully in probability theory and statistics for a long time. The step sizes used in stochastic approximation are generally taken to be deterministic and…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-09-25 Ujan Gangopadhyay , Krishanu Maulik

We take a Bayesian perspective to illustrate a connection between training speed and the marginal likelihood in linear models. This provides two major insights: first, that a measure of a model's training speed can be used to estimate its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-28 Clare Lyle , Lisa Schut , Binxin Ru , Yarin Gal , Mark van der Wilk

One of the fundamental problems in Bayesian statistics is the approximation of the posterior distribution. Gibbs sampler and coordinate ascent variational inference are renownedly utilized approximation techniques that rely on stochastic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Se Yoon Lee

We study the generalization performance of $\text{full-batch}$ optimization algorithms for stochastic convex optimization: these are first-order methods that only access the exact gradient of the empirical risk (rather than gradients with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-02 Idan Amir , Yair Carmon , Tomer Koren , Roi Livni

Deriving Bayesian inference for exponential random graph models (ERGMs) is a challenging "doubly intractable" problem as the normalizing constants of the likelihood and posterior density are both intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-26 Linda S. L. Tan , Nial Friel

We consider jointly estimating the coefficient matrix and the error precision matrix in high-dimensional multivariate linear regression models. Bayesian methods in this context often face computational challenges, leading to previous…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-25 Xuan Cao , Kyoungjae Lee

We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-07-28 Naveen Naidu Narisetty , Xuming He

(Mini-batch) Stochastic Gradient Descent is a popular optimization method which has been applied to many machine learning applications. But a rather high variance introduced by the stochastic gradient in each step may slow down the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-09 Jingchang Liu , Linli Xu

We propose a novel approach to sequential Bayesian inference based on variational Bayes (VB). The key insight is that, in the online setting, we do not need to add the KL term to regularize to the prior (which comes from the posterior at…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-01 Matt Jones , Peter Chang , Kevin Murphy

Increasing the mini-batch size for stochastic gradient descent offers significant opportunities to reduce wall-clock training time, but there are a variety of theoretical and systems challenges that impede the widespread success of this…

Filters in convolutional neural networks are sensitive to their initialization. The random numbers used to initialize filters are a bias and determine if you will "win" and converge to a satisfactory local minimum so we call this The Filter…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-05-30 Joseph Paul Cohen , Henry Z. Lo , Wei Ding

Cluster sampling is common in survey practice, and the corresponding inference has been predominantly design-based. We develop a Bayesian framework for cluster sampling and account for the design effect in the outcome modeling. We consider…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-24 Susanna Makela , Yajuan Si , Andrew Gelman

We provide statistical guarantees for Bayesian variational boosting by proposing a novel small bandwidth Gaussian mixture variational family. We employ a functional version of Frank-Wolfe optimization as our variational algorithm and study…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-23 Biraj Subhra Guha , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

Neural networks trained with standard objectives exhibit behaviors characteristic of probabilistic inference: soft clustering, prototype specialization, and Bayesian uncertainty tracking. These phenomena appear across architectures -- in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-01 Alan Oursland

Estimating boundary curves has many applications such as economics, climate science, and medicine. Bayesian trend filtering has been developed as one of locally adaptive smoothing methods to estimate the non-stationary trend of data. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Takahiro Onizuka , Fumiya Iwashige , Shintaro Hashimoto
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