Related papers: Expected Shortfall is jointly elicitable with Valu…

A method for quantile-based, semi-parametric historical simulation estimation of multiple step ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) models is developed. It uses the quantile loss function, analogous to how the…

The Effective Sample Size (ESS) is an important measure of efficiency of Monte Carlo methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Importance Sampling (IS) techniques. In the IS context, an approximation $\widehat{ESS}$ of the…

In general, underestimation of risk is something which should be avoided as far as possible. Especially in financial asset management, equity risk is typically characterized by the measure of portfolio variance, or indirectly by quantities…

In this article, by using composite asymmetric least squares (CALS) and empirical likelihood, we propose a two-step procedure to estimate the conditional value at risk (VaR) and conditional expected shortfall (ES) for the GARCH series.…

Multiple testing of a single hypothesis and testing multiple hypotheses are usually done in terms of p-values. In this paper we replace p-values with their natural competitor, e-values, which are closely related to betting, Bayes factors,…

Cross-validation under sample selection bias can, in principle, be done by importance-weighting the empirical risk. However, the importance-weighted risk estimator produces sub-optimal hyperparameter estimates in problem settings where…

In this paper we consider the problem of inference in statistical models characterized by moment restrictions by casting the problem within the Exponentially Tilted Empirical Likelihood (ETEL) framework. Because the ETEL function has a well…

This article focuses on the work of O. Chanel and G. Chichilnisky (2013) on the flaws of expected utility theory while assessing the value of life. Expected utility is a fundamental tool in decision theory. However, it does not fit with the…

We analyse the properties of the Diebold and Mariano (1995) test in the presence of autocorrelation in the loss differential. We show that the power of the Diebold and Mariano (1995) test decreases as the dependence increases, making it…

This work presents a theoretical and empirical evaluation of Anderson-Darling test when the sample size is limited. The test can be applied in order to backtest the risk factors dynamics in the context of Counterparty Credit Risk modelling.…

In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In…

We show that coherent risk measures are ineffective in curbing the behaviour of investors with limited liability or excessive tail-risk seeking behaviour if the market admits statistical arbitrage opportunities which we term…

Expected risk minimization (ERM) is at the core of many machine learning systems. This means that the risk inherent in a loss distribution is summarized using a single number - its average. In this paper, we propose a general approach to…

Model developers implement safeguards in frontier models to prevent misuse, for example, by employing classifiers to filter dangerous outputs. In this work, we demonstrate that even robustly safeguarded models can be used to elicit harmful…

Statistical inferential results generally come with a measure of reliability for decision-making purposes. For a policy implementer, the value of implementing published policy research depends critically upon this reliability. For a policy…

The risk of financial positions is measured by the minimum amount of capital to raise and invest in eligible portfolios of traded assets in order to meet a prescribed acceptability constraint. We investigate nondegeneracy, finiteness and…

Reproducibility is a fundamental requirement for validating scientific claims in computational research. Stochastic computational models are widely used in fields such as systems biology, financial modeling and environmental sciences.…

We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…

We study a general risk measure called the generalized shortfall risk measure, which was first introduced in Mao and Cai (2018). It is proposed under the rank-dependent expected utility framework, or equivalently induced from the cumulative…

Several problems in statistics involve the combination of high-variance unbiased estimators with low-variance estimators that are only unbiased under strong assumptions. A notable example is the estimation of causal effects while combining…