Related papers: Long-memory process and aggregation of AR(1) stoch…
An autoregressive process with Markov regime is an autoregressive process for which the regression function at each time point is given by a nonobservable Markov chain. In this paper we consider the asymptotic properties of the maximum…
Autoregression in large language models (LLMs) has shown impressive scalability by unifying all language tasks into the next token prediction paradigm. Recently, there is a growing interest in extending this success to vision foundation…
In this contribution we introduce weakly locally stationary time series through the local approximation of the non-stationary covariance structure by a stationary one. This allows us to define autoregression coefficients in a non-stationary…
This paper investigates the second order properties of a stationary process after random sampling. While a short memory process gives always rise to a short memory one, we prove that long-memory can disappear when the sampling law has heavy…
Analyzing temporal data (e.g., wearable device data) requires a decision about how to combine information from the recent and distant past. In the context of classifying sleep status from actigraphy, Webster's rescoring rules offer one…
The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…
We propose a generic confidence-based approximation that can be plugged in and simplify the auto-regressive generation process with a proved convergence. We first assume that the priors of future samples can be generated in an independently…
It is known that in some cases a Random Access Machine (RAM) benefits from having an additional input that is an arbitrary number, satisfying only the criterion of being sufficiently large. This is known as the ARAM model. We introduce a…
We introduce an statistical mechanical formalism for the study of discrete-time stochastic processes with which we prove: (i) General properties of extremal chains, including triviality on the tail $\sigma$-algebra, short-range…
High-dimensional time series data appear in many scientific areas in the current data-rich environment. Analysis of such data poses new challenges to data analysts because of not only the complicated dynamic dependence between the series,…
Recent advances in deep generative models have led to impressive results in a variety of application domains. Motivated by the possibility that deep learning models might memorize part of the input data, there have been increased efforts to…
Existing causal inference (CI) models are often restricted to data with low-dimensional confounders and singleton actions. We propose an autoregressive (AR) CI framework capable of handling complex confounders and sequential actions…
A new integer--valued autoregressive process (INAR) with Generalised Lagrangian Katz (GLK) innovations is defined. This process family provides a flexible modelling framework for count data, allowing for under and over--dispersion,…
We present a purely deep neural network-based approach for estimating long memory parameters of time series models that incorporate the phenomenon of long-range dependence. Parameters, such as the Hurst exponent, are critical in…
The autoregressive Hilbertian model (ARH) was introduced in the early 90's by Denis Bosq. It was the subject of a vast literature and gave birth to numerous extensions. The model generalizes the classical multidimensional autoregressive…
In this paper we are interested in the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of the vector parameter of an autoregressive process of order $p$ with regular stationary Gaussian noise. We exhibit the large sample asymptotical properties of the…
Reinforcement learning algorithms rely on exploration to discover new behaviors, which is typically achieved by following a stochastic policy. In continuous control tasks, policies with a Gaussian distribution have been widely adopted.…
Large-scale autoregressive models pretrained on next-token prediction and finetuned with reinforcement learning (RL) have achieved unprecedented success on many problem domains. During RL, these models explore by generating new outputs, one…
We prove limit theorems of an entirely new type for certain long memory regularly varying stationary infinitely divisible random processes. These theorems involve multiple phase transitions governed by how long the memory is. Apart from one…
This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…