Related papers: Long-memory process and aggregation of AR(1) stoch…

Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…

We introduce a recursive algorithm of conveniently general form for estimating the coefficient of a moving average model of order one and obtain convergence results for both correct and misspecified MA(1) models. The algorithm encompasses…

We extend classical results about the convergence of nearly unstable AR(p) processes to the infinite order case. To do so, we proceed as in recent works about Hawkes processes by using limit theorems for some well chosen geometric sums. We…

We propose a model for hierarchical structured data as an extension to the stochastic temporal convolutional network. The proposed model combines an autoregressive model with a hierarchical variational autoencoder and downsampling to…

In this work we propose a new class of long-memory models with time-varying fractional parameter. In particular, the dynamics of the long-memory coefficient, $d$, is specified through a stochastic recurrence equation driven by the score of…

This paper reviews recent developments of robust estimation in linear time series models, with short and long memory correlation structures, in the presence of additive outliers. Based on the manuscripts Fajardo et al. (2009) and…

We investigate joint temporal and contemporaneous aggregation of N independent copies of strictly stationary INteger-valued AutoRegressive processes of order 1 (INAR(1)) with random coefficient $\alpha\in(0,1)$ and with idiosyncratic…

Class-conditional generative models have emerged as accurate and robust classifiers, with diffusion models demonstrating clear advantages over other visual generative paradigms, including autoregressive (AR) models. In this work, we revisit…

In this paper, we give a AR$(1)$ type of characterization covering all multivariate strictly stationary processes indexed by the set of integers. Consequently, we derive continuous time algebraic Riccati equations for the parameter matrix…

We define a new multivariate time series model by generalizing the ARMAX process in a multivariate way. We give conditions on stationarity and analyze local dependence and domains of attraction. As a consequence of the obtained result, we…

The paper proposes an identification procedure for autoregressive gaussian stationary stochastic processes wherein the manifest (or observed) variables are mostly related through a limited number of latent (or hidden) variables. The method…

A new version of the partial autocorrelation plot and a new family of subset autoregressive models are introduced. A comprehensive approach to model identification, estimation and diagnostic checking is developed for these models. These…

We prove mixing convergence of the least squares estimator of autoregressive parameters for supercritical autoregressive processes of order 2 with Gaussian innovations having real characteristic roots with different absolute values. We use…

An inhomogeneous first--order integer--valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process is investigated, where the autoregressive type coefficient slowly converges to one. It is shown that the process converges weakly to a Poisson or a compound…

This article introduces the GNAR package, which fits, predicts, and simulates from a powerful new class of generalised network autoregressive processes. Such processes consist of a multivariate time series along with a real, or inferred,…

We study how the round-off (or discretization) error changes the statistical properties of a Gaussian long memory process. We show that the autocovariance and the spectral density of the discretized process are asymptotically rescaled by a…

A general asymptotic theory is given for the panel data AR(1) model with time series independent in different cross sections. The theory covers the cases of stationary process, nearly non-stationary process, unit root process, mildly…

In this paper, we consider an inference problem for the first order autoregressive process driven by a long memory stationary Gaussian process. Suppose that the covariance function of the noise can be expressed as $\abs{k}^{2H-2}$ times a…

We propose a sparse coefficient estimation and automated model selection procedure for autoregressive (AR) processes with heavy-tailed innovations based on penalized conditional maximum likelihood. Under mild moment conditions on the…

We investigate the nonparametric bivariate additive regression estimation in the random design and long-memory errors and construct adaptive thresholding estimators based on wavelet series. The proposed approach achieves asymptotically…