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The Akaike information criterion (AIC) is commonly used to select a logistic regression model for optimal prediction of a binary response by a specified family of models. It however lacks a convincing method of prescribing a proper family…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-10 Jiun-Wei Liou , Michelle Liou , Philip E. Cheng , Chin-Chiuan Lin

Selecting the number of regimes in Hidden Markov models is an important problem. There are many criteria that are used to select this number, such as Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), integrated…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-23 Bouchra R Nasri , Bruno N Rémillard , Mamadou Y Thioub

The first investigation is made of designs for screening experiments where the response variable is approximated by a generalised linear model. A Bayesian information capacity criterion is defined for the selection of designs that are…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-27 David C. Woods , James M. McGree , Susan M. Lewis

Factorized information criterion (FIC) is a recently developed approximation technique for the marginal log-likelihood, which provides an automatic model selection framework for a few latent variable models (LVMs) with tractable inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-04-23 Kohei Hayashi , Shin-ichi Maeda , Ryohei Fujimaki

Datasets encountered when examining deeper issues in ecology and evolution are often complex. This calls for careful strategies for both model building, model selection, and model averaging. Our paper aims at motivating, exhibiting, and…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-19 Gerda Claeskens , Céline Cunen , Nils Lid Hjort

Model selection is of fundamental importance to high dimensional modeling featured in many contemporary applications. Classical principles of model selection include the Kullback-Leibler divergence principle and the Bayesian principle,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-12 Jinchi Lv , Jun S. Liu

In multivariate extreme value analysis, the estimation of the dependence structure in extremes is demanding, especially in the context of high-dimensional data. Therefore, a common approach is to reduce the model dimension by considering…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Lucas Butsch , Vicky Fasen-Hartmann

In this work, we propose a modified Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) specifically designed for mixture models and hierarchical structures. This criterion incorporates the determinant of the Hessian matrix of the log-likelihood function,…

A central issue of many statistical learning problems is to select an appropriate model from a set of candidate models. Large models tend to inflate the variance (or overfitting), while small models tend to cause biases (or underfitting)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-25 Jie Ding , Enmao Diao , Jiawei Zhou , Vahid Tarokh

Classical confidence intervals after best subset selection are widely implemented in statistical software and are routinely used to guide practitioners in scientific fields to conclude significance. However, there are increasing concerns in…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-27 Huiming Lin , Meng Li

We emphasize that it is possible to improve the principle of unbiased risk estimation for model selection by addressing excess risk deviations in the design of penalization procedures. Indeed, we propose a modification of Akaike's…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-23 Adrien Saumard , Fabien Navarro

This paper considers the problem of approximating a density when it can be evaluated up to a normalizing constant at a limited number of points. We call this problem the Boltzmann approximation (BA) problem. The BA problem is ubiquitous in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-08 Youngjun Choe , Yen-Chi Chen , Nick Terry

The theoretical foundation for a number of model selection criteria is established in the context of inhomogeneous point processes and under various asymptotic settings: infill, increasing domain, and combinations of these. For…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-11 Achmad Choiruddin , Jean-François Coeurjolly , Rasmus Waagepetersen

We study model selection by the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in fixed-dimensional exploratory factor analysis over a fixed finite family of compact covariance classes. Our main result shows that the BIC is strongly consistent for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-10 Hien Duy Nguyen , Kei Hirose

This paper proposes an information-based inference method for partially identified parameters in incomplete models that is valid both when the model is correctly specified and when it is misspecified. Key features of the method are: (i) it…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-25 Hiroaki Kaido , Francesca Molinari

Unmeasured covariates constitute one of the important problems in causal inference. Even if there are some unmeasured covariates, some instrumental variable methods such as a two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) estimator, or a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-30 Shunichiro Orihara

Information theoretic criteria (ITC) have been widely adopted in engineering and statistics for selecting, among an ordered set of candidate models, the one that better fits the observed sample data. The selected model minimizes a penalized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-10 Andrea Mariani , Andrea Giorgetti , Marco Chiani

Given a random sample from a multivariate population, estimating the number of large eigenvalues of the population covariance matrix is an important problem in Statistics with wide applications in many areas. In the context of Principal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-10 Abhinav Chakraborty , Soumendu Sundar Mukherjee , Arijit Chakrabarti

The information criterion AIC has been used successfully in many areas of statistical modeling, and since it is derived based on the Taylor expansion of the log-likelihood function and the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-12 Genshiro Kitagawa

For propensity score analysis and sparse estimation, we develop an information criterion for determining the regularization parameters needed in variable selection. First, for Gaussian distribution-based causal inference models, we extend…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-22 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya