Related papers: Predicting catastrophic shifts
Spatial diffusion of particles in periodic potential models has provided a good framework for studying the role of chaos in global properties of classical systems. Here a bidimensional "soft" billiard, classically modeled from an optical…
Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…
It is well known that the addition of noise to a multistable dynamical system can induce random transitions from one stable state to another. For low noise, the times between transitions have an exponential tail and Kramers' formula gives…
The evolution of many dynamical systems that describe relationships or interactions between objects can be effectively modeled by temporal networks, which are typically represented as a sequence of static network snapshots. In this paper,…
Predictions of biodiversity trajectories under climate change are crucial in order to act effectively in maintaining the diversity of species. In many ecological applications, future predictions are made under various global warming…
Abrupt and rapid high-amplitude changes in a dynamical system's states known as extreme event appear in many processes occurring in nature, such as drastic climate patterns, rogue waves, or avalanches. These events often entail catastrophic…
This paper proposes an algorithm capable of driving a system to follow a piecewise linear trajectory without prior knowledge of the system dynamics. Motivated by a critical failure scenario in which a system can experience an abrupt change…
Ecosystems are complex systems, currently experiencing several threats associated with global warming, intensive exploitation, and human-driven habitat degradation. Such threats are pushing ecosystems to the brink of collapse. Because of a…
The collapse of man-made and natural structures is a complex phenomenon that has been studied for centuries. We propose a new approach to understanding catastrophic instabilities, based on the idea that they do not occur at the critical…
This paper introduces a novel approach to quantifying ecological resilience in biological systems, particularly focusing on noisy systems responding to episodic disturbances with sudden adaptations. Incorporating concepts from…
Key features of biological activity can often be captured by transitions between a finite number of semi-stable states that correspond to behaviors or decisions. We present here a broad class of dynamical systems that are ideal for modeling…
When deployed in the real world, machine learning models inevitably encounter changes in the data distribution, and certain -- but not all -- distribution shifts could result in significant performance degradation. In practice, it may make…
Despite the wide use of networks as a versatile tool for exploring complex social systems, little is known about how to detect and forecast abrupt changes in social systems. In this report, we develop an early warning approach based on…
Complex systems such as ecological communities and neuron networks are essential parts of our everyday lives. These systems are composed of units which interact through intricate networks. The ability to predict sudden changes in the…
Random walks serve as important tools for studying complex network structures, yet their dynamics in cases where transition probabilities are not static remain under explored and poorly understood. Here we study nonlinear random walks that…
Ecological systems often exhibit complex nonlinear dynamics like oscillations, chaos, and regime shifts. Universal dynamic equations have shown promise in modeling complex dynamics by combining known functional forms with neural networks…
Unravelling current complex food systems is relevant for their adjustment and redesign under the current changing climate conditions. Redesign may be necessitated by migration of people and changes of locations of major agri-food…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
An ecological system with multiple stable equilibria is prone to undergo catastrophic change or regime shift from one steady-state to another. It should be noted that, if one of the steady states is an extinction state, the catastrophic…
Anticipating bifurcation-induced transitions in dynamical systems has gained relevance in various fields of the natural, social, and economic sciences. Before the annihilation of a system's equilibrium point by means of a bifurcation, the…