Related papers: Quantifying Spatio-Temporal Variation of Invasion …
Invasive pest establishment is a pervasive threat to global ecosystems, agriculture, and public health. The recent establishment of the invasive spotted lanternfly in the northeastern United States has proven devastating to farms and…
Analysing non-Gaussian spatial-temporal data requires introducing spatial as well as temporal dependence in generalised linear models through the link function of an exponential family distribution. Unlike in Gaussian likelihoods, inference…
The standard diffusive spreading, characterized by a Gaussian distribution with mean square displacement that grows linearly with time, can break down, for instance, under the presence of correlations and heterogeneity. In this work, we…
In this paper, we consider a Fisher-KPP equation with an advection term and two free boundaries, which models the behavior of an invasive species in one dimension space. When spreading happens (that is, the solution converges to a positive…
We show that propagation speeds in invasion processes modeled by reaction-diffusion systems are determined by marginal spectral stability conditions, as predicted by the marginal stability conjecture. This conjecture was recently settled in…
Physical contacts result in the spread of various phenomena such as viruses, gossips, ideas, packages and marketing pamphlets across a population. The spread depends on how people move and co-locate with each other, or their mobility…
We study metapopulation models for the spread of epidemics in which different subpopulations (cities) are connected by fluxes of individuals (travelers). This framework allows to describe the spread of a disease on a large scale and we…
Species distribution models (SDMs) are important statistical tools for ecologists to understand and predict species range. However, standard SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dynamic processes like dispersal. This limitation may lead to…
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…
We introduce a model of traveling agents ({\it e.g.} frugivorous animals) who feed on randomly located vegetation patches and disperse their seeds, thus modifying the spatial distribution of resources in the long term. It is assumed that…
Recent statistical methods fitted on large-scale GPS data can provide accurate estimations of the expected travel time between two points. However, little is known about the distribution of travel time, which is key to decision-making…
We model two time and space scales discrete observations by using a unique continuous diffusion process with time dependent coefficient. We define new parameters for the large scale model as functions of the small scale distribution…
H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been recently circulating in previously unseen patterns. As the underlying causes are uncertain, we need a better understanding of the drivers of virus circulation, as they underpin the…
Recent advances in local models for point processes have highlighted the need for flexible methodologies to account for the spatial heterogeneity of external covariates influencing process intensity. In this work, we introduce tessellated…
Infectious disease models can be of great use for understanding the underlying mechanisms that influence the spread of diseases and predicting future disease progression. Modeling has been increasingly used to evaluate the potential impact…
Cyclic predator-prey models with four or six species are studied on a square lattice when the invasion rates are varied. It is found that the cyclic invasions maintain a self-organizing pattern as long as the deviation of the invasion…
We study an individual-based model in which two spatially-distributed species, characterized by different diffusivities, compete for resources. We consider three different ecological settings. In the first, diffusing faster has a cost in…
Zoonotic disease transmission between animals and humans is a growing risk and the agricultural context acts as a likely point of transition, with individual heterogeneity acting as an important contributor. Thus, understanding the dynamics…
Accurate forecasting of avian disease outbreaks is critical for wildlife conservation and public health. This study presents a Transformer-based framework for predicting the disease risk at the terminal locations of migratory bird…
Downscaling aims to link the behaviour of the atmosphere at fine scales to properties measurable at coarser scales, and has the potential to provide high resolution information at a lower computational and storage cost than numerical…