Related papers: From Micro to Macro: Uncovering and Predicting Inf…
When a piece of information (microblog, photograph, video, link, etc.) starts to spread in a social network, an important question arises: will it spread to "viral" proportions -- where "viral" is defined as an order-of-magnitude increase.…
Many physical, biological, and social phenomena can be described by cascades taking place on a network. Often, the activity can be empirically observed, but not the underlying network of interactions. In this paper we offer three…
Online social networks play a major role in the spread of information at very large scale and it becomes essential to provide means to analyse this phenomenon. In this paper we address the issue of predicting the temporal dynamics of the…
We study the problems of estimating the past and future evolutions of two diffusion processes that spread concurrently on a network. Specifically, given a known network $G=(V, \overrightarrow{E})$ and a (possibly noisy) snapshot…
We consider in this paper the potential for ex ante prediction of the cascade size in a model of binary choice with externalities (Schelling 1973, Watts 2002). Agents are connected on a network and can be in one of two states of the world,…
Transmission of disease, spread of information and rumors, adoption of new products, and many other network phenomena can be fruitfully modeled as cascading processes, where actions chosen by nodes influence the subsequent behavior of…
This study addresses the challenge of predicting network dynamics, such as forecasting disease spread in social networks or estimating species populations in predator-prey networks. Accurate predictions in large networks are difficult due…
The deluge of digital information in our daily life -- from user-generated content, such as microblogs and scientific papers, to online business, such as viral marketing and advertising -- offers unprecedented opportunities to explore and…
Cascading failure as a systematic risk occurs in a wide range of real-world networks. Cascade size distribution is a basic and crucial characteristic of systemic cascade behaviors. Recent research works have revealed that the distribution…
An avalanche or cascade occurs when one event causes one or more subsequent events, which in turn may cause further events in a chain reaction. Avalanching dynamics are studied in many disciplines, with a recent focus on average avalanche…
Temporal social networks of human interactions are preponderant in understanding the fundamental patterns of human behavior. In these networks, interactions occur locally between individuals (i.e., nodes) who connect with each other at…
We propose a model which explains how power-law crossover behaviour can arise in a system which is capable of experiencing cascading failure. In our model the susceptibility of the system to cascades is described by a single number, the…
Understanding how complex behaviors, opinions, and innovations spread in online social networks remains a central challenge in computational social science. Existing models of complex contagion typically rely on stylized threshold…
In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail, in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Here, we develop a statistical…
We introduce a general framework for models of cascade and contagion processes on networks, to identify their commonalities and differences. In particular, models of social and financial cascades, as well as the fiber bundle model, the…
Information diffusion mechanisms based on social influence models are mainly studied using likelihood of adoption when active neighbors expose a user to a message. The problem arises primarily from the fact that for the most part, this…
The network paradigm is used to gain insight into the structural root causes of the resilience of consensus in dynamic collective behaviors, and to analyze the controllability of the swarm dynamics. Here we devise the dynamic signaling…
Integrated cyber-physical systems (CPSs), such as the smart grid, are increasingly becoming the underpinning technology for major industries. A major concern regarding such systems are the seemingly unexpected large-scale failures, which…
The Hawkes process has garnered attention in recent years for its suitability to describe the behavior of online information cascades. Here, we present a fully tractable approach to analytically describe the distribution of the number of…
Interacting systems of events may exhibit cascading behavior where events tend to be temporally clustered. While the cascades themselves may be obvious from the data, it is important to understand which states of the system trigger them.…