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An infinite bit sequence is called recursively random if no computable strategy betting along the sequence has unbounded capital. It is well-known that the property of recursive randomness is closed under computable permutations. We…
We prove the existence and computability of optimal strategies in weighted limit games, zero-sum infinite-duration games with a B\"uchi-style winning condition requiring to produce infinitely many play prefixes that satisfy a given regular…
This paper develops likelihood-based methods for estimation, inference, model selection, and forecasting of continuous-time integer-valued trawl processes. The full likelihood of integer-valued trawl processes is, in general, highly…
Suppose that the outcomes of a roulette table are not entirely random, in the sense that there exists a successful betting strategy. Is there a successful `separable' strategy, in the sense that it does not use the winnings from betting on…
This note provides a simple example demonstrating that, if exact computations are allowed, the number of iterations required for the value iteration algorithm to find an optimal policy for discounted dynamic programming problems may grow…
In a guessing game, players guess the value of a random real number selected using some probability density function. The winner may be determined in various ways; for example, a winner can be a player whose guess is closest in magnitude to…
In a casino where arbitrarily small bets are admissible, any betting strategy M can be modified into a savings strategy that, not only is successful on each casino sequence where M is (thus accumulating unbounded wealth inside the casino)…
Safe anytime-valid inference (SAVI) provides measures of statistical evidence and certainty -- e-processes for testing and confidence sequences for estimation -- that remain valid at all stopping times, accommodating continuous monitoring…
We introduce quantitative reductions, a novel technique for structuring the space of quantitative games and solving them that does not rely on a reduction to qualitative games. We show that such reductions exhibit the same desirable…
In the gambling foundation of probability theory, rationality requires that a subject should always (never) find desirable all nonnegative (negative) gambles, because no matter the result of the experiment the subject never (always)…
Iterated admissibility is a well-known and important concept in classical game theory, e.g. to determine rational behaviors in multi-player matrix games. As recently shown by Berwanger, this concept can be soundly extended to infinite games…
The variation of a martingale $p_0^k=p_0,...,p_k$ of probabilities on a finite (or countable) set $X$ is denoted $V(p_0^k)$ and defined by $V(p_0^k)=E(\sum_{t=1}^k|p_t-p_{t-1}|_1)$. It is shown that $V(p_0^k)\leq \sqrt{2kH(p_0)}$, where…
Kelly betting is a prescription for optimal resource allocation among a set of gambles which are typically repeated in an independent and identically distributed manner. In this setting, there is a large body of literature which includes…
One index satisfies the duality axiom if one agent, who is uniformly more risk-averse than another, accepts a gamble, the latter accepts any less risky gamble under the index. Aumann and Serrano (2008) show that only one index defined for…
In many real world elections, agents are not required to rank all candidates. We study three of the most common methods used to modify voting rules to deal with such partial votes. These methods modify scoring rules (like the Borda count),…
This paper studies discounted Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with finite sets of states and actions. Value iteration is one of the major methods for finding optimal policies. For each discount factor, starting from a finite number of…
Integer programming is concerned with solving linear systems of equations over the non-negative integers. The basic question is to find a solution which minimizes a given linear objective function for a fixed right hand side. Here we also…
This paper explores multi-entry strategies for betting pools related to single-elimination tournaments. In such betting pools, participants select winners of games, and their respective score is a weighted sum of the number of correct…
We consider a randomised version of Kleene's realisability interpretation of intuitionistic arithmetic in which computability is replaced with randomised computability with positive probability. In particular, we show that (i) the set of…
Two-player zero-sum repeated games are well understood. Computing the value of such a game is straightforward. Additionally, if the payoffs are dependent on a random state of the game known to one, both, or neither of the players, the…