Related papers: Small-time asymptotics for Gaussian self-similar s…
We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use…
Strict stationarity is a common assumption used in the time series literature in order to derive asymptotic distributional results for second-order statistics, like sample autocovariances and sample autocorrelations. Focusing on weak…
We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…
We consider discrete time dynamical systems and show the link between Hitting Time Statistics (the distribution of the first time points land in asymptotically small sets) and Extreme Value Theory (distribution properties of the partial…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic relation between the first crossing point and the last exit time for Gaussian order statistics which are generated by stationary weakly and strongly dependent Gaussian sequences. It is shown that the…
We investigate how price variations of a stock are transformed into profits and losses (P&Ls) of a trend following strategy. In the frame of a Gaussian model, we derive the probability distribution of P&Ls and analyze its moments (mean,…
We study the asymptotic behavior, uniform-in-time, of a non-linear dynamical system under the combined effects of fast periodic sampling with period $\delta$ and small white noise of size $\varepsilon,\thinspace 0<\varepsilon,\delta \ll 1$.…
We present sharp tail asymptotics for the density and the distribution function of linear combinations of correlated log-normal random variables, that is, exponentials of components of a correlated Gaussian vector. The asymptotic behavior…
We provide explicit conditions on the distribution of risk-neutral log-returns which yield sharp asymptotic estimates on the implied volatility smile. We allow for a variety of asymptotic regimes, including both small maturity (with…
In this short note, we prove by an appropriate change of variables that the SVI implied volatility parameterization presented in Gatheral's book and the large-time asymptotic of the Heston implied volatility agree algebraically, thus…
Asymptotics deviation probabilities of the sum S n = X 1 + $\times$ $\times$ $\times$ + X n of independent and identically distributed real-valued random variables have been extensively investigated , in particular when X 1 is not…
In this paper we propose a new model for volatility fluctuations in financial time series. This model relies on a non-stationary gaussian process that exhibits aging behavior. It turns out that its properties, over any finite time interval,…
The aim of this paper is first the detection of multiple abrupt changes of the long-range dependence (respectively self-similarity, local fractality) parameters from a sample of a Gaussian stationary times series (respectively time series,…
In this paper, we propose a nonparametric way to test the hypothesis that time-variation in intraday volatility is caused solely by a deterministic and recurrent diurnal pattern. We assume that noisy high-frequency data from a discretely…
In this paper, we study a class of self-exciting point processes. The intensity of the point process has a nonlinear dependence on the past history and time. When a new jump occurs, the intensity increases and we expect more jumps to come.…
This paper is concerned with the estimation of the volatility process in a stochastic volatility model of the following form: $dX_t=a_tdt+\sigma_tdW_t$, where $X$ denotes the log-price and $\sigma$ is a c\`adl\`ag semi-martingale. In the…
The correlation properties of the magnitudes of a time series (sometimes called volatility) are associated with nonlinear and multifractal properties and have been applied in a great variety of fields. Here, we have obtained analytically…
This paper investigates the large-time asymptotic behavior of the sensitivities of cash flows. In quantitative finance, the price of a cash flow is expressed in terms of a pricing operator of a Markov diffusion process. We study the extent…
We derive an explicit asymptotic approximation for the implied volatilities of Call options written on bonds assuming the short-rate is described by an affine short-rate model. For specific affine short-rate models, we perform numerical…
We consider the pricing of derivatives written on the discretely sampled realized variance of an underlying security. In the literature, the realized variance is usually approximated by its continuous-time limit, the quadratic variation of…