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Bayesian inverse problems use observed data to update a prior probability distribution for an unknown state or parameter of a scientific system to a posterior distribution conditioned on the data. In many applications, the unknown parameter…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Josie König , Elizabeth Qian , Melina A. Freitag

Parameter inference in ordinary differential equations is an important problem in many applied sciences and in engineering, especially in a data-scarce setting. In this work, we introduce a novel generative modeling approach based on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-06 Philippe Wenk , Gabriele Abbati , Michael A Osborne , Bernhard Schölkopf , Andreas Krause , Stefan Bauer

In a smooth semi-parametric model, the marginal posterior distribution for a finite dimensional parameter of interest is expected to be asymptotically equivalent to the sampling distribution of any efficient point-estimator. The assertion…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-26 Minwoo Chae , Yongdai Kim , Bas Kleijn

Statistical regression models whose mean functions are represented by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) can be used to describe phenomenons dynamical in nature, which are abundant in areas such as biology, climatology and genetics. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-15 Kyoungjae Lee , Jaeyong Lee , Sarat C. Dass

We present two approximate Bayesian inference methods for parameter estimation in partial differential equation (PDE) models with space-dependent and state-dependent parameters. We demonstrate that these methods provide accurate and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-04 David A. Barajas-Solano , Alexandre M. Tartakovsky

We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-27 Siddhartha Chib , Minchul Shin , Anna Simoni

In this work, we concern with the high order numerical methods for coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs). Based on the FBSDEs theory, we derive two reference ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2014-03-27 Weidong Zhao , Yu Fu , Tao Zhou

We present a general framework for Bayesian inference of causal effects that delivers provably robust inferences founded on design-based randomization of treatments. The framework involves fixing the observed potential outcomes and forming…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 Easton Huch , Fred Feinberg , Walter Dempsey

Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-04-20 Carlo Albert , Simone Ulzega , Ruedi Stoop

Recently, Gaussian processes have been used to model the vector field of continuous dynamical systems, referred to as GPODEs, which are characterized by a probabilistic ODE equation. Bayesian inference for these models has been extensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Jian Xu , Shian Du , Junmei Yang , Xinghao Ding , John Paisley , Delu Zeng

In the bayesian analysis of Inverse Problems most relevant cases the forward maps (FM, or regressor function) are defined in terms of a system of (O, P)DE's with intractable solutions. These necessarily involve a numerical method to find…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-31 J. Andrés Christen , Marcos A. Capistrán , Miguel Ángel Moreles

We study empirical Bayes estimation in high-dimensional linear regression. To facilitate computationally efficient estimation of the underlying prior, we adopt a variational empirical Bayes approach, introduced originally in Carbonetto and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-27 Sumit Mukherjee , Bodhisattva Sen , Subhabrata Sen

The problem of detecting the Out-of-Distribution (OoD) inputs is of paramount importance for Deep Neural Networks. It has been previously shown that even Deep Generative Models that allow estimating the density of the inputs may not be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-02 Misha Glazunov , Apostolis Zarras

An exciting branch of machine learning research focuses on methods for learning, optimizing, and integrating unknown functions that are difficult or costly to evaluate. A popular Bayesian approach to this problem uses a Gaussian process…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-02 Anqi Wu , Mikio C. Aoi , Jonathan W. Pillow

We establish a general semiparametric Bernstein-von Mises theorem for Bayesian nonparametric priors based on continuous observations in a periodic reversible multidimensional diffusion model. We consider a wide range of functionals…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-23 Matteo Giordano , Kolyan Ray

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-23 Kolyan Ray , Aad van der Vaart

We consider population modelling using parametrised ordinary differential equation initial value problems (ODE-IVPs). For each individual drawn randomly from the unknown population distribution, the corresponding parameters for the ODE-IVP…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-18 Han Cheng Lie

In most relevant cases in the Bayesian analysis of ODE inverse problems, a numerical solver needs to be used. Therefore, we cannot work with the exact theoretical posterior distribution but only with an approximate posterior deriving from…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-01 Marcos Capistrán , J. Andrés Christen , Sophie Donnet

In applications of Bayesian procedures, once a class of priors has been chosen, it may be tempting to fix the prior's hyperparameters from the data, in an empirical Bayes (EB) fashion, usually by their maximum marginal likelihood estimates…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Stefano Rizzelli , Judith Rousseau , Sonia Petrone

We propose a scalable variational Bayes method for statistical inference for a single or low-dimensional subset of the coordinates of a high-dimensional parameter in sparse linear regression. Our approach relies on assigning a mean-field…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-12 Ismaël Castillo , Alice L'Huillier , Kolyan Ray , Luke Travis