Related papers: Non-Arbitrage Under Additional Information for Thi…
Assuming some regression model, it is common to study the conditional distribution of survival given covariates. Here, we consider the impact of further conditioning, specifically conditioning on a marginal survival function, known or…
We establish almost sure invariance principles, a strong form of approximation by Brownian motion, for non-stationary time-series arising as observations on dynamical systems. Our examples include observations on sequential expanding maps,…
We consider a conditional factor model for a multivariate portfolio of United States equities in the context of analysing a statistical arbitrage trading strategy. A state space framework underlies the factor model whereby asset returns are…
Within the setup of continuous-time semimartingale financial markets, we show that a multiprior Gilboa-Schmeidler minimax expected utility maximizer forms a portfolio consisting only of the riskless asset if and only if among the investor's…
Non-stationarity poses significant challenges for multivariate time series forecasting due to the inherent short-term fluctuations and long-term trends that can lead to spurious regressions or obscure essential long-term relationships. Most…
We study a variant of the martingale optimal transport problem in a multi-period setting to derive robust price bounds of a financial derivative. On top of marginal and martingale constraints, we introduce a time-homogeneity assumption,…
Consider the sum $Y=B+B(H)$ of a Brownian motion $B$ and an independent fractional Brownian motion $B(H)$ with Hurst parameter $H\in(0,1)$. Even though $B(H)$ is not a semimartingale, it was shown in [\textit{Bernoulli} \textbf{7} (2001)…
A financial market model where agents trade using realistic combinations of buy-and-hold strategies is considered. Minimal assumptions are made on the discounted asset-price process - in particular, the semimartingale property is not…
We study nonparametric regression with covariates $X$ and outcome $Y$ under random unbiased perturbations (RUPs) of the conditional distribution $Y|X$, where the marginal distribution of covariates, $P^X$, remains fixed but the conditional…
We define and study a rather complex market model, inspired from the Santa Fe artificial market and the Minority Game. Agents have different strategies among which they can choose, according to their relative profitability, with the…
In this paper we introduce a general method for estimating the quadratic covariation of one or more spot parameters processes associated with continuous time semimartingales. This estimator is applicable to a wide range of spot parameter…
Utilizing non-concurrent control data (NCC) in the analysis of late-entering arms in platform trials has recently received considerable attention. While incorporating NCC can lead to increased power and lower sample sizes, it might…
We consider the problem of tracking a target whose dynamics is modeled by a continuous It\=o semi-martingale. The aim is to minimize both deviation from the target and tracking efforts. We establish the existence of asymptotic lower bounds…
We pursue robust approach to pricing and hedging in mathematical finance. We consider a continuous time setting in which some underlying assets and options, with continuous paths, are available for dynamic trading and a further set of…
Mathematically, the execution of an American-style financial derivative is commonly reduced to solving an optimal stopping problem. Breaking the general assumption that the knowledge of the holder is restricted to the price history of the…
We propose a nonparametric estimator of the jump activity index $\beta$ of a pure-jump semimartingale $X$ driven by a $\beta$-stable process when the underlying observations are coming from a high-frequency setting at irregular times. The…
In the context of Risk Neutral Pricing theory, we consider the classic problem of calibrating a martingale over $\mathbb{R}^n$ to a finite number of marginals thereof, or more practically, to prices of an arbitrary finite set of (joint)…
We study the short-time asymptotics of conditional expectations of smooth and non-smooth functions of a (discontinuous) Ito semimartingale; we compute the leading term in the asymptotics in terms of the local characteristics of the…
We propose a novel time discretization for the log-normal SABR model which is a popular stochastic volatility model that is widely used in financial practice. Our time discretization is a variant of the Euler-Maruyama scheme. We study its…
We investigate a pricing rule that is applicable for streams of income or contingent claim liabilities and study how this rule changes under additional insider-type information that an investor might obtain. Considering a model where the…