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We present a universal concentration bound for sums of random variables under arbitrary dependence, and we prove that it is asymptotically optimal for broad families of marginals admitting a uniform integrable tail-quantile envelope. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Cosme Louart , Sicheng Tan

We show that in abelian sandpiles on infinite Galton-Watson trees, the probability that the total avalanche has more than $t$ topplings decays as $t^{-1/2}$. We prove both quenched and annealed bounds, under suitable moment conditions. Our…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-04 Antal Jarai , Wioletta M. Ruszel , Ellen Saada

We propose the notion of sub-Weibull distributions, which are characterised by tails lighter than (or equally light as) the right tail of a Weibull distribution. This novel class generalises the sub-Gaussian and sub-Exponential families to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-04 Mariia Vladimirova , Stephane Girard , Hien Nguyen , Julyan Arbel

We consider a multivariate distributional recursion of sum-type as arising in the probabilistic analysis of algorithms and random trees. We prove an upper tail bound for the solution using Chernoff's bounding technique by estimating the…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-06-21 Goetz Olaf Munsonius

Let $\tau$n be a random tree distributed as a Galton-Watson tree with geometric offspring distribution conditioned on {Zn = an} where Zn is the size of the n-th generation and (an, n $\in$ N *) is a deterministic positive sequence. We study…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-28 Romain Abraham , Aymen Bouaziz , Jean-François Delmas

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Ernst Roos , Ruud Brekelmans , Wouter van Eekelen , Dick den Hertog , Johan van Leeuwaarden

There are many ways of measuring and modeling tail-dependence in random vectors: from the general framework of multivariate regular variation and the flexible class of max-stable vectors down to simple and concise summary measures like the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-05 Anja Janßen , Sebastian Neblung , Stilian Stoev

Let $\mathcal{T}$ denote a Galton--Watson tree with offspring distribution $\xi$ satisfying $\mathbb{E}(\xi) = 1$, and let $\mathcal{T}_n$ be the Galton--Watson tree conditioned to have exactly $n$ nodes. We show that, under a mild moment…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Fameno Rakotoniaina , Dimbinaina Ralaivaosaona

This work studies the tail exponents for the height function of the stationary stochastic six vertex model in the moderate deviations regime. For the upper tail of the height function we find upper and lower bounds of matching order, with a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-15 Benjamin Landon , Philippe Sosoe

We study the conditions for families of subtrees to exist with high probability (whp) in a Galton-Walton tree of size $n$. We first give a Poisson approximation of fringe subtree counts, which yields the height of the maximal complete…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-21 Xing Shi Cai , Luc Devroye

We prove extensions of classical concentration inequalities for random variables which have $\alpha$-subexponential tail decay for any $\alpha \in (0,2]$. This includes Hanson--Wright type and convex concentration inequalities. We also…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-09 Holger Sambale

In [1] a detailed analysis was given of the large-time asymptotics of the total mass of the solution to the parabolic Anderson model on a supercritical Galton-Watson random tree with an i.i.d. random potential whose marginal distribution is…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-07 Frank den Hollander , Daoyi Wang

Consider a random walk in random environment on a supercritical Galton--Watson tree, and let $\tau_n$ be the hitting time of generation $n$. The paper presents a large deviation principle for $\tau_n/n$, both in quenched and annealed cases.…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-01-11 Elie Aidekon

We present a proof of an upper tail bound of the correct order (up to a constant factor in the exponent) in two classes of stationary models in the KPZ universality class. The proof is based on an exponential identity due to Rains in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-01 Benjamin Landon , Philippe Sosoe

We give explicit bounds for the tail probabilities for sums of independent geometric or exponential variables, possibly with different parameters.

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-26 Svante Janson

Estimating extreme quantiles is an important task in many applications, including financial risk management and climatology. More important than estimating the quantile itself is to insure zero coverage error, which implies the quantile…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-08 Douglas E. Johnston

We consider the large deviations at the order of the variance for the central value of a family of $L$-functions among the members with bounded discriminant. When there is an upper bound on an integer moment of the central value twisted by…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-07 N. Creighton

We show that the expected size of the maximum agreement subtree of two $n$-leaf trees, uniformly random among all trees with the shape, is $\Theta(\sqrt{n})$. To derive the lower bound, we prove a global structural result on a decomposition…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2018-09-13 Pratik Misra , Seth Sullivant

We investigate conditioning Galton-Watson trees on general recursive-type events, such as the event that the tree survives until a specific level. It turns out that the conditioned tree is again a type of Galton-Watson tree, with different…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-19 Eric Cator , Henk Don

We derive exponential bounds for tail of distribution for natural, i.e. under ordinary logarithm, normalized sums of arrays of random variables, not necessarily independent.