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Understanding and modeling mortality patterns, especially differences in mortality rates between populations, is vital for demographic analysis and public health planning. We compare three statistical models within the age-period framework…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-14 Giacomo Lanfiuti Baldi , Andrea Nigri , Han Lin Shang

We study the distribution of ages in the mean field forest fire model introduced by R\'ath and T\'oth. This model is an evolving random graph whose dynamics combine Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi edge-addition with a Poisson rain of lightning strikes.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-07 Edward Crane , Balazs Rath , Dominic Yeo

We study the out of equilibrium dynamics of several models exhibiting aging. We attempt at identifying various types of aging systems using a phase space point of view: we introduce a trial classification, based on the overlap between two…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-28 A. Barrat , R. Burioni , M. Mézard

We represent a process of learning by using bit strings, where 1-bits represent the knowledge acquired by individuals. Two ways of learning are considered: individual learning by trial-and-error; and social learning by copying knowledge…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Armando Ticona Bustillos , Paulo Murilo C. de Oliveira

We propose and analyze a nonlinear age-structured multi-species model that serves as a unifying framework for ecological and biotechnological systems in complex environments (microbial communities, bioreactors, and others). The formulation…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Marius Bargo , Yacouba Simpore

We investigate the aging behavior of lattice-gas models with constrained dynamics in which particle exchange with a reservoir is allowed. Such models provide a particularly simple interpretation of aging phenomena as a slow approach to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-30 Jorge Kurchan , Luca Peliti , Mauro Sellitto

Malaria is one of the most common mosquito-borne diseases widespread in tropical and subtropical regions, causing thousands of deaths every year in the world. In a previous paper, we formulated an age-structured model containing three…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-05-24 Quentin Richard , Marc Choisy , Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse , Thierry Lefèvre

Epidemic models are used to analyze the progression or outcome of an epidemic under different control policies like vaccinations, quarantines, lockdowns, use of face-masks, pharmaceutical interventions, etc. When these models accurately…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-04-19 Carlos Hernandez-Suarez , Osval Montsinos Lopez , Ramon Solano-Barajas

We investigate recurrence and transience of Branching Markov Chains (BMC) in discrete time. Branching Markov Chains are clouds of particles which move (according to an irreducible underlying Markov Chain) and produce offspring…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 Nina Gantert , Sebastian Mueller

This study investigates how visibility graphs constructed from Monte Carlo Markov Chain time series of spin models capture the critical behavior of the system. More precisely, we show that this approach identifies continuous phase…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-03-19 Roberto da Silva

The purpose of the present paper is to incorporate stochastic interest rates into a matrix-approach to multi-state life insurance, where formulas for reserves, moments of future payments and equivalence premiums can be obtained as explicit…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-18 Jamaal Ahmad , Mogens Bladt

We study K-processes, which are Markov processes in a denumerable state space, all of whose elements are stable, with the exception of a single state, starting from which the process enters finite sets of stable states with uniform…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Luiz Renato Fontes , Pierre Mathieu

This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-18 Silvio C. Patricio , Fredy Castellares , Bernardo L. Queiroz

Ageing's sensitivity to natural selection has long been discussed because of its apparent negative effect on individual's fitness. Thanks to the recently described (Smurf) 2-phase model of ageing we were allowed to propose a fresh angle for…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-17 Sylvie Méléard , Michael Rera , Tristan Roget

Multitype branching processes (MTBP) model branching structures, where the nodes of the resulting tree are objects of different types. One field of application of such models in biology is in studies of cell proliferation. A sampling scheme…

Computation · Statistics 2012-06-19 Nina Daskalova

We introduce a new random graph model motivated by biological questions relating to speciation. This random graph is defined as the stationary distribution of a Markov chain on the space of graphs on $\{1, \ldots, n\}$. The dynamics of this…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-24 François Bienvenu , Florence Débarre , Amaury Lambert

We present a data-driven model predictive control scheme for chance-constrained Markovian switching systems with unknown switching probabilities. Using samples of the underlying Markov chain, ambiguity sets of transition probabilities are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-02 Mathijs Schuurmans , Panagiotis Patrinos

We investigate the mixed spin-$(s,\tfrac12)$ Ising model on a Cayley tree of order three ($k=3$), extending the approach of \cite{Akin2024}. For the representative case $s=5$, the associated recursion leads to an 11-dimensional dynamical…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2026-02-17 Hasan Akin

Motivated by sample path decomposition of the stationary continuous state branching process with immigration, a general population model is considered using the idea of immortal individual. We compute the joint distribution of the random…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-09 Hongwei Bi

Ageing in systems without detailed balance is studied in bosonic contact and pair-contact processes with Levy diffusion. In the ageing regime, the dynamical scaling of the two-time correlation function and two-time response function is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-09-22 Xavier Durang , Malte Henkel