Related papers: How old is this bird? The age distribution under s…
Multi-state models are commonly used for intermittent observations of a state over time, but these are generally based on the Markov assumption, that transition rates are independent of the time spent in current and previous states. In a…
Entropic aging consists in a progressive slowing down of the low-temperature dynamics of a glassy system due to the rarefaction of downwards directions on the energy landscape, as lower and lower energy levels are reached. A prototypical…
We present models and computational results which indicate that the spatial and temporal regularity seen in Proteus mirabilis swarm-colony development is largely an expression of a sharp age of dedifferentiation in the cell cycle from…
The conventional perspective on Markov chains considers decision problems concerning the probabilities of temporal properties being satisfied by traces of visited states. However, consider the following query made of a stochastic system…
In this paper, we consider the problem of experience rating within the classic Markov chain life insurance framework. We begin by establishing a link between mixed Poisson distributions and the problem of pricing group disability insurance…
A deterministic model of an age-structured population with genetics analogous to the discrete time Penna model of genetic evolution is constructed on the basis of the Lotka-Volterra scheme. It is shown that if, as in the Penna model,…
We propose a hidden Markov model for univariate proportion time series taking values in (0,1), where regime switching captures latent structural changes and the emission distribution belongs to the Beta family. In each latent state, the…
We adapt the article of Forien, Pang, Pardoux and Zotsa: Arxiv preprint Arxiv2210.04667(2022), on epidemic models with varying infectivity and waning immunity, to incorporate the memory of the last infection. To this end, we introduce a…
We propose a class of evolutionary models that involves an arbitrary exchangeable process as the breeding process and different selection schemes. In those models, a new genome is born according to the breeding process, and then a genome is…
Although species longevity is subject to a diverse range of selective forces, the mortality curves of a wide variety of organisms are rather similar. We argue that aging and its universal characteristics may have evolved by means of a…
A branching process in a Markovian environment consists of an irreducible Markov chain on a set of "environments" together with an offspring distribution for each environment. At each time step the chain transitions to a new random…
A model of the dynamics of natural rotifer populations is described as a discrete nonlinear map depending on three parameters, which reflect characteristics of the population and environment. Model dynamics and their change by variation of…
We investigate a neutral model for speciation and extinction, the constant rate birth-death process. The process is conditioned to have $n$ extant species today, we look at the tree distribution of the reconstructed trees-- i.e. the trees…
We describe a percolation-type approach to modeling of the processes of aging and certain other properties of tissues analyzed as systems consisting of interacting cells. Tissues are considered as structures made of regular healthy,…
We studied a mean-field predator-prey model with aging to simulate the \mbox{interaction} between aphids (\textit{Toxoptera aurantii}) and syrphid larvae in \mbox{cacao} farms in Ilheus, Bahia. Based on the classical predator-prey model, we…
In this work, we study a family of non-Markovian trees modeling populations where individuals live and reproduce independently with possibly time-dependent birth-rate and lifetime distribution. To this end, we use the coding process…
We consider a non-attractive three state contact process on $\mathbb Z$ and prove that there exists a regime of survival as well as a regime of extinction. In more detail, the process can be regarded as an infection process in a dynamic…
Markov switching models are a popular family of models that introduces time-variation in the parameters in the form of their state- or regime-specific values. Importantly, this time-variation is governed by a discrete-valued latent…
A bit-string model of biological life-histories is parallelized, with hundreds of millions of individuals. It gives the desired drastic decay of survival probabilities with increasing age for 32 age intervals.
We provide a probabilistic approach to modeling the movements of subjects through multiple stages, with "stays" or survival at each stage for a random length of time, and ending at a desired final stage. We use conditional Markov chains…