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Jump diffusion processes are widely used to model asset prices over time, mainly for their ability to capture complex discontinuous behavior, but inference on the model parameters remains a challenge. Here our goal is posterior inference on…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-23 Ryan Martin , Cheng Ouyang , Francois Domagni

We consider the large deviations of the hydrodynamic rescaling of the zero-range process on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ in any dimension $d\ge 1$. Under mild and canonical hypotheses on the local jump rate, we obtain matching upper and lower bounds,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-01 Benjamin Fehrman , Benjamin Gess , Daniel Heydecker

Complex systems are often characterized by the interplay of multiple interconnected dynamical processes operating across a range of temporal scales. This phenomenon is widespread in both biological and artificial scenarios, making it…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-08 Giorgio Nicoletti , Daniel M. Busiello

A new Bayesian significance test is adjusted for jump detection in a diffusion process. This is an advantageous procedure for temporal data having extreme valued outliers, like financial data, pluvial or tectonic forces records and others.

Methodology · Statistics 2009-11-13 Laura L. R. Rifo , Soledad Torres

The large deviations at Level 2.5 are applied to Markov processes with absorbing states in order to obtain the explicit extinction rate of metastable quasi-stationary states in terms of their empirical time-averaged density and of their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-01-13 Cecile Monthus

The paper examines a class of first order linear hyperbolic systems, proposed as a generalization of the Goldstein-Kac model for velocity-jump processes and determined by a finite number of speeds and corresponding transition rates. It is…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2013-10-21 Corrado Mascia

We consider the problem of estimating the joint distribution of a continuous-time perpetuity and the underlying factors which govern the cash flow rate, in an ergodic Markov model. Two approaches are used to obtain the distribution. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-18 Constantinos Kardaras , Scott Robertson

We investigate active lattice walks: biased continuous time random walks which perform orientational diffusion between lattice directions in one and two spatial dimensions. We study the occupation probability of an arbitrary site on the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-02-27 Stephy Jose , Dipanjan Mandal , Mustansir Barma , Kabir Ramola

In this paper we develop the large deviations principle and a rigorous mathematical framework for asymptotically efficient importance sampling schemes for general, fully dependent systems of stochastic differential equations of slow and…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-29 Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

In this paper, we study the long-time behavior of a fluid particle immersed in a turbulent fluid driven by a diffusion with jumps, that is, a Feller process associated with a non-local operator. We derive the law of large numbers and…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-02-17 Guodong Pang , Nikola Sandrić

The objective of this dissertation is to prove a scaling limit for the exit of a domain problem of a small noise system with underlying hyperbolic dynamics. In this case, Large Deviation kind of estimates fail to provide a complete picture…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-10-12 Sergio Angel Almada Monter

We establish a sharp large deviation principle for renewal-reward processes, supposing that each renewal involves a broad-sense reward taking values in a real separable Banach space. In fact, we demonstrate a weak large deviation principle…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-24 Marco Zamparo

We study a microscopic limit order book model, in which the order dynamics depend on the current best bid and ask price and the current volume density functions, simultaneously, and derive its macroscopic high-frequency dynamics. As opposed…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-17 Dörte Kreher , Cassandra Milbradt

We establish uniqueness for a class of first-order Hamilton-Jacobi equations with Hamiltonians that arise from the large deviations of the empirical measure and empirical flux pair of weakly interacting Markov jump processes. As a corollary…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-24 Richard C. Kraaij

The main results in this paper concern large deviations for families of non-Gaussian processes obtained as suitable perturbations of continuous centered multivariate Gaussian processes which satisfy a large deviation principle. We present…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-06 C. Macci , B. Pacchiarotti

We consider the superposition of a symmetric simple exclusion dynamics, speeded-up in time, with a spin-flip dynamics in a one-dimensional interval with periodic boundary conditions. We prove the large deviations principle for the empirical…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-01 Jonathan Farfan , Claudio Landim , Kenkichi Tsunoda

The large deviation principle in the small noise limit is derived for solutions of possibly degenerate It\^o stochastic differential equations with predictable coefficients, which may depend also on the large deviation parameter. The result…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-06 Alberto Chiarini , Markus Fischer

We consider a system of diffusion processes that interact through their empirical mean and have a stabilizing force acting on each of them, corresponding to a bistable potential. There are three parameters that characterize the system: the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-08-31 Josselin Garnier , George Papanicolaou , Tzu-Wei Yang

Micro- and nano-scale systems driven by rapid changes in control parameters (control protocols) dissipate significant energy. In the fast-protocol limit, we find that protocols that minimize dissipation at fixed duration are universally…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-08-11 Steven Blaber , Miranda D. Louwerse , David A. Sivak

We deal with the change point problem in ergodic diffusion processes based on high frequency data. Tonaki et al. (2020, 2021) studied the change point problem for the ergodic diffusion process model. However, the change point problem for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-26 Yozo Tonaki , Masayuki Uchida