Related papers: On flare predictability based on sunspot group evo…
We present several methods towards construction of precursors, which show great promise towards early predictions, of solar flare events in this paper. A data pre-processing pipeline is built to extract useful data from multiple sources,…
Accurate and reliable solar flare predictions are essential to mitigate potential impacts on critical infrastructure. However, the current performance of solar flare forecasting is insufficient. In this study, we address the task of…
The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at…
Magnetic imprints, the rapid and irreversible evolution of photospheric magnetic fields as a feedback from flares in the corona, have been confirmed by many previous studies. These studies showed that the horizontal field will permanently…
The distribution of small-scale magnetic fields in stellar photospheres is an important ingredient in our understanding of the magnetism of low mass stars. Their spatial distribution connects the field generated in the stellar interior with…
Aims: Changes of the magnetic field and the line-of-sight velocities in the photosphere are being reported for an M-class flare that originated at a $\delta$-spot belonging to active region NOAA 11865. Methods: High-resolution ground-based…
Solar flares are explosions on the Sun. They happen when energy stored in magnetic fields around solar active regions (ARs) is suddenly released. In this paper, we present a transformer-based framework, named SolarFlareNet, for predicting…
We investigate the evolution of NOAA Active Region 11817 during 2013 August 10--12, when it developed a complex field configuration and produced four confined, followed by two eruptive, flares. These C-and-above flares are all associated…
A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be…
Many questions must be answered before understanding the relationship between the emerging magnetic flux through the solar surface and the extreme geoeffective events. The main ingredients for getting X-ray class flares and large…
Many previous studies have shown that magnetic fields as well as sunspot structures present rapid and irreversible changes associated with solar flares. In this paper we first use five X-class flares observed by SDO/HMI to show that not…
Starspots and stellar flares are indicators of stellar magnetic activity.The magnetic energy stored around spots is thought to be the origin of flares, but the connection is not completely understood. To investigate the relation between…
We study the predictive capabilities of magnetic feature properties (MF) generated by Solar Monitor Active Region Tracker (SMART) for solar flare forecasting from two datasets: the full dataset of SMART detections from 1996 to 2010 that has…
Sunspot proper motions and flares of a super active region NOAA 5395, which was the biggest and the most flare-active region in the 22nd sunspot cycle, were analyzed in details. We measured sunspot proper motions by using the H-alpha - 5.0…
In order to understand the flare trigger mechanism, we conducted three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations using a coronal magnetic field model derived from data observed by the Hinode satellite. Several types of magnetic bipoles…
M dwarfs are known to flare on timescales from minutes to hours, with flux increases of several magnitudes in the blue/near-UV. These frequent, powerful events, which are caused by magnetic reconnection, will have a strong observational…
The spot evolution on the Sun and solar-type stars is important for understanding the nature of consequential flaring activity. This study statistically investigates the variance of flare occurrence rate through the time evolution of spots…
Solar flares, especially C, M, and X class, pose significant risks to satellite operations, communication systems, and power grids. We present a novel approach for predicting extreme solar flares using HMI intensitygrams and magnetograms.…
This study aims to evaluate the performance of deep learning models in predicting $\geq$M-class solar flares with a prediction window of 24 hours, using hourly sampled full-disk line-of-sight (LoS) magnetogram images, particularly focusing…
During eruptive flares, vector magnetograms show increasing horizontal magnetic field and downward Lorentz force in the Sun's photosphere around the polarity-inversion line. Such behavior has often been associated with the implosion…