Related papers: On flare predictability based on sunspot group evo…
Solar flares are the most explosive phenomena in the solar system and the main trigger of the events' chain that starts from Coronal Mass Ejections and leads to geomagnetic storms with possible impacts on the infrastructures at Earth.…
Traditional solar flare forecasting approaches have mostly relied on physics-based or data-driven models using solar magnetograms, treating flare predictions as a point-in-time classification problem. This approach has limitations,…
The prediction of solar flares is still a significant challenge in space weather research, with no techniques currently capable of producing reliable forecasts performing significantly above climatology. In this paper, we present a flare…
Large scale solar eruptions significantly impact space weather and damages space-based human infrastructures. It is necessary to predict large scale solar eruptions, which will enable us to protect our vulnerable infrastructures of modern…
Machine learning is nowadays the methodology of choice for flare forecasting and supervised techniques, in both their traditional and deep versions, are becoming the most frequently used ones for prediction in this area of space weather.…
Rieger et al (1984) reported observations of a 154 day periodicity in flares during solar cycle 21. This paper discusses the observations in the light of a simple empirical planetary model of sunspot emergence. The planetary model predicts…
Among the eruptive activity phenomena observed on the Sun, the most technology threatening ones are flares with associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs). Flares with associated CMEs and SEPs are produced…
We study the photospheric magnetic field of ~2000 active regions in solar cycle 23 to search for parameters indicative of energy build-up and subsequent release as a solar flare. We extract three sets of parameters: snapshots in space and…
We study the time-variable linear polarisation of Sgr A* during a bright NIR flare observed with the GRAVITY instrument on July 28, 2018. Motivated by the time evolution of both the observed astrometric and polarimetric signatures, we…
Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to…
Solar flares are explosions in the solar atmosphere that release intense bursts of short-wavelength radiation and are capable of producing severe space-weather consequences. Flares release free energy built up in coronal fields, which are…
Solar flares, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, have a profound impact on both the Earth's space environment and human activities. As a result, accurate solar flare prediction has emerged as a central topic in…
Solar filament eruptions, flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are manifestations of drastic release of energy in the magnetic field, which are related to many eruptive phenomena from the Earth magnetosphere to black hole accretion…
Ways to give medium- and short-term predictions of solar flares are proposed according to the statistical analysis of events during solar cycle 23. On one hand, the time distribution of both C and M class flares shows two main periods of…
Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause immediate and adverse effects on the interplanetary space and geospace. The deeper understanding of the mechanisms that produce them and the construction of efficient prediction schemes…
We develop a mixed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) regression model to predict the maximum solar flare intensity within a 24-hour time window 0$\sim$24, 6$\sim$30, 12$\sim$36 and 24$\sim$48 hours ahead of time using 6, 12, 24 and 48 hours of…
The R-value is a measure of the strength of photospheric magnetic Polarity Inversion Lines (PILs) in Active Regions (ARs). This work investigates the possibility of a relation between R-value variations and the occurrence of X-class flares…
Solar eruptions, including flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), have a significant impact on Earth. Some flares are associated with CMEs, and some flares are not. The association between flares and CMEs is not always obvious. In this…
Solar flares are caused by magnetic eruptions in active regions (ARs) on the surface of the sun. These events can have significant impacts on human activity, many of which can be mitigated with enough advance warning from good forecasts. To…
We analyse the temporal evolution of the Differential Emission Measure (DEM) of solar active regions and explore its usage in solar flare prediction. The DEM maps are provided by the Gaussian Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (GAIA-DEM) archive,…